Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Fair Value 2026

ADC · REIT - Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) trades at $73.20, versus a $50.52 median fair value across its 8 active models — 31.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ADC
Price
$73.20
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +8.2% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $50.52, 31.0% below the current price of $73.20. Estimates range from $16.16 to $79.21. ADC scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 36/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ADC’s -31.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Retail sector median is -43.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Agree Realty Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ADC?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($73.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $46.78 -36.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $79.21 +8.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.00 -67.2%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $16.16 -77.9%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including PWERM, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 8 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ADC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $16.16 to $79.21

CirclFi's 8 active models place Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) between $16.16 and $79.21 per share, a spread of 125% of the median. The median of that range — $50.52 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ADC, against a current price of $73.20.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Markov DDM
$16.16median $50.52$79.21
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$16.16
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$79.21
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ADC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ADC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Agree Realty Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $50.52. Trading at its current price of $73.20, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -31.0%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $79.21 (+8.2%), versus Dynamic NAV at $16.16 (-77.9%). This +86.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ADC?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ADC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ADC is $50.52 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ADC Rank in REIT - Retail?

Among 26 REIT - Retail stocks, ADC ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places ADC in the top tier.

The REIT - Retail sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer-facing company businesses. For Agree Realty Corporation, metrics like store traffic trends provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ADC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADC a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Agree Realty Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Agree Realty Corporation earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +86.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ADC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ADC's 8 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Agree Realty Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

PECOPhillips Edison & Company, Inc.QOC 8.1ORealty Income CorporationQOC 7.9SPGSimon Property Group, Inc.QOC 8.3BRXBrixmor Property Group Inc.QOC 7.9EPRTEssential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.6FCPTFour Corners Property Trust, Inc.QOC 7.8KRGKite Realty Group TrustQOC 7.7CURBCurbline Properties Corp.QOC 7.3MACThe Macerich CompanyQOC 5.9FRTFederal Realty Investment TrustQOC 8.9REGRegency Centers CorporationQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: PECO · O · SPG · BRX · EPRT · FCPT · KRG · CURB · MAC · FRT · REG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ADC?

7 companies across all industries closest to ADC’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

OFLXOmega Flex, Inc.QOC 8.0BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0GFFGriffon CorporationQOC 8.0INDBIndependent Bank Corp.QOC 8.0KBRKBR, Inc.QOC 8.0ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OFLX · BFH · GFF · INDB · KBR · ABG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Agree Realty Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Agree Realty Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)'s intrinsic value at $50.52 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $16.16 to $79.21. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ADC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $73.20, 1 of 8 active models suggest ADC may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $50.52, 31.0% below the current price of $73.20 — a consensus view that ADC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Agree Realty Corporation's business model in REIT - Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for ADC?

Agree Realty Corporation's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ADC?

CirclFi analyzes ADC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ADC?

Of the 8 models currently active on ADC, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $79.21 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $16.16. CirclFi's published fair value for ADC is the median of that range, $50.52, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 125% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ADC a value trap in 2026?

Agree Realty Corporation's Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) has a median fair value of $50.52 — 31.0% below the current price of $73.20 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ADC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ADC valuation
  • Financial statements: Agree Realty Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000917251) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ADC as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 8 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ADC.

Unlock All 8 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

4 models hidden for ADC Unlock All 8 — $39/mo