Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Fair Value 2026

ADC · REIT - Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) trades at $78.62, approximately 19% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $66.19. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ADC
Price
$78.62
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +42.3% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($78.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $66.19 -15.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $78.38 -0.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $111.86 +42.3%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
 $29.38 -62.6%

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What Is Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Agree Realty Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $78.62. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $87.26 (+11.0% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 6 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $300.40 (+282.1%), versus Dynamic NAV at $17.25 (-78.1%). This +360.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ADC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ADC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ADC's intrinsic value at $66.19, implying -15.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ADC Rank in REIT - Retail?

Among 3 REIT - Retail stocks, ADC ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places ADC in the top tier.

The REIT - Retail sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer-facing company businesses. For Agree Realty Corporation, metrics like store traffic trends provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ADC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADC a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Agree Realty Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Agree Realty Corporation earns a quality score of 8.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +360.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ADC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ADC's 12 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Agree Realty Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related REIT - Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

ALXAlexander's, Inc.QOC 6.7AKRAcadia Realty TrustQOC 6.7

Read investment analysis: ALX · AKR

Frequently Asked Questions About Agree Realty Corporation

What is Agree Realty Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $66.19. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ADC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $78.62, 5 of 12 active models suggest ADC may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Agree Realty Corporation's business model in REIT - Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for ADC?

Agree Realty Corporation's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ADC?

CirclFi analyzes ADC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ADC a value trap in 2026?

Agree Realty Corporation's Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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