Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Fair Value 2026

TSCO · Specialty Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) trades at $34.70, versus a $31.14 median fair value across its 11 active models — 10.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $33.09.

Key Facts

Ticker
TSCO
Price
$34.70
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $31.14, 10.3% below the current price of $34.70. Estimates range from $14.20 to $58.91. TSCO scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TSCO’s -10.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Specialty Retail sector median is -15.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tractor Supply Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TSCO?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($34.70)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $33.09 -4.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.13 -1.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $31.14 -10.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.20 -59.1%
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What Is TSCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $14.20 to $58.91

CirclFi's 11 active models place Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) between $14.20 and $58.91 per share, a spread of 144% of the median. The median of that range — $31.14 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TSCO, against a current price of $34.70.

Low · EROICHigh · ML-RIV
$14.20median $31.14$58.91
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$14.20
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$58.91
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TSCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TSCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tractor Supply Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $31.14, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $34.70. With a median implied return of -10.3% across a split 3–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +128.9% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +69.8% (fair value: $58.91), while EROIC is the most conservative at -59.1% ($14.20). The spread between these extremes — +128.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TSCO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for TSCO. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TSCO is $31.14 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $33.09 on its own, implying -4.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TSCO Rank in Specialty Retail?

Among 49 Specialty Retail stocks, TSCO ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places TSCO in the top tier.

As a retail business, Tractor Supply Company operates in a sector where customer lifetime value (CLV) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TSCO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TSCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TSCO a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Tractor Supply Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tractor Supply Company's fundamental quality profile registers 8.3/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +128.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TSCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TSCO's 11 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tractor Supply Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

BWMXBetterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V.QOC 8.4BBWIBath & Body Works, Inc.QOC 8.1DKSDICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.QOC 8.4BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.QOC 8.1BBWBuild-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.QOC 8.5SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0BNEDBarnes & Noble Education, Inc.QOC 6.9CHPTChargePoint Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.6TKLFTokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.QOC 9.3ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: BWMX · BBWI · DKS · BBY · BBW · SBH · BNED · CHPT · TKLF · WSM · ARHS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TSCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to TSCO’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

SPGSimon Property Group, Inc.QOC 8.3PBHPrestige Consumer Healthcare Inc.QOC 8.3TDCTeradata CorporationQOC 8.3WCCWESCO International, Inc.QOC 8.3VTEXVTEXQOC 8.3MGRCMcGrath RentCorpQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SPG · PBH · TDC · WCC · VTEX · MGRC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tractor Supply Company’s Valuation?

What is Tractor Supply Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)'s intrinsic value at $31.14 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $14.20 to $58.91. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $33.09 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TSCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $34.70, 3 of 11 active models suggest TSCO may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $31.14, 10.3% below the current price of $34.70 — a consensus view that TSCO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tractor Supply Company's business model in Specialty Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for TSCO?

Tractor Supply Company's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TSCO?

CirclFi analyzes TSCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TSCO?

Of the 11 models currently active on TSCO, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $58.91 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $14.20. CirclFi's published fair value for TSCO is the median of that range, $31.14, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 144% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TSCO a value trap in 2026?

Tractor Supply Company's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) has a median fair value of $31.14 — 10.3% below the current price of $34.70 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TSCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TSCO valuation
  • Financial statements: Tractor Supply Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000916365) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TSCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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