Realty Income Corporation (O) Fair Value 2026

O · REIT - Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Realty Income Corporation (O) trades at $54.25, versus a $39.49 median fair value across its 7 active models — 27.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
O
Price
$54.25
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Realty Income Corporation (O) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Realty Income Corporation (O) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $39.49, 27.2% below the current price of $54.25. Estimates range from $13.91 to $57.78. O scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. O’s -27.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Retail sector median is -37.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Realty Income Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give O?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($54.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $39.49 -27.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $45.26 -16.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.91 -74.4%
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What Is O's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $13.91 to $57.78

CirclFi's 7 active models place Realty Income Corporation (O) between $13.91 and $57.78 per share, a spread of 111% of the median. The median of that range — $39.49 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for O, against a current price of $54.25.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$13.91median $39.49$57.78
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$13.91
Most bullish modelPWERM$57.78
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for O. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on O, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Realty Income Corporation (O) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Realty Income Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $39.49, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $54.25. With 6 out of 7 models flagging downside (-27.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +6.5% (fair value: $57.78), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -74.4% ($13.91). The spread between these extremes — +80.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About O?

7 of 13 models are currently active for O. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for O is $39.49 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does O Rank in REIT - Retail?

Among 26 REIT - Retail stocks, O ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

Within the REIT - Retail space, Realty Income Corporation competes in an environment where e-commerce penetration rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is O a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns O a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Realty Income Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Realty Income Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +80.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every O valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across O's 7 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Realty Income Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

ADCAgree Realty CorporationQOC 8.0BRXBrixmor Property Group Inc.QOC 7.9PECOPhillips Edison & Company, Inc.QOC 8.1FCPTFour Corners Property Trust, Inc.QOC 7.8SPGSimon Property Group, Inc.QOC 8.3NTSTNETSTREIT Corp.QOC 7.8AKRAcadia Realty TrustQOC 7.6CBLCBL & Associates Properties, Inc.QOC 7.3SKTTanger Inc.QOC 3.5FRTFederal Realty Investment TrustQOC 8.9EPRTEssential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: ADC · BRX · PECO · FCPT · SPG · NTST · AKR · CBL · SKT · FRT · EPRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to O?

7 companies across all industries closest to O’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

FITBFifth Third BancorpQOC 7.9PFGCPerformance Food Group CompanyQOC 7.9EBMTEagle Bancorp Montana, Inc.QOC 7.9EEExcelerate Energy, Inc.QOC 7.9BBARBanco BBVA Argentina S.A.QOC 7.9AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FITB · PFGC · EBMT · EE · BBAR · AJG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Realty Income Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Realty Income Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Realty Income Corporation (O)'s intrinsic value at $39.49 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $13.91 to $57.78. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is O overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $54.25, 1 of 7 active models suggest O may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $39.49, 27.2% below the current price of $54.25 — a consensus view that O is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Realty Income Corporation's business model in REIT - Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for O?

Realty Income Corporation's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on O?

CirclFi analyzes O with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on O?

Of the 7 models currently active on O, PWERM is the most bullish at $57.78 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $13.91. CirclFi's published fair value for O is the median of that range, $39.49, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 111% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is O a value trap in 2026?

Realty Income Corporation's Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Realty Income Corporation (O) has a median fair value of $39.49 — 27.2% below the current price of $54.25 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/O/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this O valuation
  • Financial statements: Realty Income Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000726728) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for O as of ; valuations recomputed .

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