Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) Fair Value 2026

CCK · Packaging & Containers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) trades at $118.44, versus a $122.57 median fair value across its 12 active models — 3.5% above the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $60.21.

Key Facts

Ticker
CCK
Price
$118.44
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +103.5% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $122.57, within 3.5% of the current price of $118.44. Estimates range from $60.21 to $241.07. CCK scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CCK’s +3.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Packaging & Containers sector median is -14.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Crown Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CCK?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($118.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $60.21 -49.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $92.48 -21.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $127.82 +7.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $241.07 +103.5%
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What Is CCK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $60.21 to $241.07

CirclFi's 12 active models place Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) between $60.21 and $241.07 per share, a spread of 148% of the median. The median of that range — $122.57 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CCK, against a current price of $118.44.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$60.21median $122.57$241.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$60.21
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$241.07
Model agreement6 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CCK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CCK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Crown Holdings, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $118.44. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $122.57 (+3.5% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $241.07 (+103.5%), versus Bayesian DCF at $60.21 (-49.2%). This +152.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CCK?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CCK. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CCK is $122.57 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $60.21 on its own, implying -49.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CCK Rank in Packaging & Containers?

Among 23 Packaging & Containers stocks, CCK ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

Crown Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CCK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CCK a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Crown Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Crown Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +152.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CCK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CCK's 12 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Crown Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaging & Containers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Packaging & Containers stocks with 13-model coverage

BALLBall CorporationQOC 7.9MYEMyers Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8TRSTriMas CorporationQOC 8.0SWSmurfit Westrock PlcQOC 7.8GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompanyQOC 8.2AMCRAmcor plcQOC 7.8REYNReynolds Consumer Products Inc.QOC 7.6YHGJYunhong Green CTI Ltd.QOC 4.9PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaQOC 8.5KRTKarat Packaging Inc.QOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: BALL · MYE · TRS · SW · GPK · AMCR · REYN · YHGJ · PKG · KRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CCK?

7 companies across all industries closest to CCK’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

CRCTCricut, Inc.QOC 7.9NETCloudflare, Inc.QOC 7.9TTMITTM Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.9AWRAmerican States Water CompanyQOC 7.9CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.QOC 7.9FAFFirst American Financial CorporationQOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CRCT · NET · TTMI · AWR · CHRW · FAF · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Crown Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Crown Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK)'s intrinsic value at $122.57 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $60.21 to $241.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $60.21 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CCK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $118.44, 6 of 12 active models suggest CCK may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $122.57, within 3.5% of the current price of $118.44 — a consensus view that CCK is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Crown Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Packaging & Containers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for CCK?

Crown Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CCK?

CirclFi analyzes CCK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CCK?

Of the 12 models currently active on CCK, First Chicago is the most bullish at $241.07 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $60.21. CirclFi's published fair value for CCK is the median of that range, $122.57, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 148% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CCK a value trap in 2026?

Crown Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) has a median fair value of $122.57 — within 3.5% of the current price of $118.44 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CCK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CCK valuation
  • Financial statements: Crown Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001219601) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CCK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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