Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC) Fair Value 2026

ERIC · Communication Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC) trades at $10.09, versus a $18.00 median fair value across its 12 active models — 78.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $22.82.

Key Facts

Ticker
ERIC
Price
$10.09
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +126.2% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $18.00, 78.4% above the current price of $10.09. Estimates range from $4.40 to $26.29. ERIC scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. ERIC’s +78.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Communication Equipment sector median is -48.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ERIC?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.82 +126.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.40 -56.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $16.99 +68.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.06 +29.4%
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What Is ERIC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $4.40 to $26.29

CirclFi's 12 active models place Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC) between $4.40 and $26.29 per share, a spread of 122% of the median. The median of that range — $18.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ERIC, against a current price of $10.09.

Low · EPVHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$4.40median $18.00$26.29
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$4.40
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$26.29
Model agreement10 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ERIC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ERIC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ). Trading at $10.09 against an estimated intrinsic value of $18.00, 10 of 12 active models flag meaningful upside of +78.4% at the median. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $26.29 (+160.6%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $4.40 (-56.3%). This +216.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ERIC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ERIC. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ERIC is $18.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $22.82 on its own, implying +126.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ERIC Rank in Communication Equipment?

Among 47 Communication Equipment stocks, ERIC ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places ERIC in the top tier.

As a telecommunications sector, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) operates in a sector where subscriber churn rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ERIC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ERIC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ERIC a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ). Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.3/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +216.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ERIC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ERIC's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Communication Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Communication Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

CSCOCisco Systems, Inc.QOC 8.5CIENCiena CorporationQOC 8.3BDCBelden Inc.QOC 8.5ZBRAZebra Technologies CorporationQOC 8.1AVNWAviat Networks, Inc.QOC 9.0FIEEFiEE, Inc.QOC 8.0LTRXLantronix, Inc.QOC 7.1MITQMoving iMage Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.6CRNTCeragon Networks Ltd.QOC 3.0BKTIBK Technologies CorporationQOC 9.6UIUbiquiti Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: CSCO · CIEN · BDC · ZBRA · AVNW · FIEE · LTRX · MITQ · CRNT · BKTI · UI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ERIC?

7 companies across all industries closest to ERIC’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

SAICScience Applications International CorporationQOC 8.3AXAxos Financial, Inc.QOC 8.3NUENucor CorporationQOC 8.3CENTCentral Garden & Pet CompanyQOC 8.3HAEHaemonetics CorporationQOC 8.3WRBW. R. Berkley CorporationQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SAIC · AX · NUE · CENT · HAE · WRB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)’s Valuation?

What is Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC)'s intrinsic value at $18.00 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $4.40 to $26.29. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $22.82 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ERIC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.09, 10 of 12 active models suggest ERIC may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $18.00, 78.4% above the current price of $10.09 — a consensus view that ERIC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)'s business model in Communication Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for ERIC?

Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ERIC?

CirclFi analyzes ERIC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ERIC?

Of the 12 models currently active on ERIC, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $26.29 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $4.40. CirclFi's published fair value for ERIC is the median of that range, $18.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 122% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ERIC a value trap in 2026?

Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC) has a median fair value of $18.00 — 78.4% above the current price of $10.09 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ERIC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ERIC valuation

Market data for ERIC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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