Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) Fair Value 2026

CDRE · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) trades at $31.10, versus a $13.22 median fair value across its 12 active models — 57.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.21.

Key Facts

Ticker
CDRE
Price
$31.10
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +53.6% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $13.22, 57.5% below the current price of $31.10. Estimates range from $1.34 to $56.51. CDRE scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CDRE’s -57.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cadre Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CDRE?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($31.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.21 -60.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.34 -95.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.54 -53.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $47.77 +53.6%
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What Is CDRE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $1.34 to $56.51

CirclFi's 12 active models place Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) between $1.34 and $56.51 per share, a spread of 417% of the median. The median of that range — $13.22 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CDRE, against a current price of $31.10.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$1.34median $13.22$56.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$1.34
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$56.51
Model agreement4 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CDRE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CDRE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cadre Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $13.22. Trading at $31.10, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -57.5%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +81.7% (fair value: $56.51), while EPV is the most conservative at -95.7% ($1.34). The spread between these extremes — +177.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CDRE?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CDRE. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CDRE is $13.22 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.21 on its own, implying -60.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CDRE Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, CDRE ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places CDRE in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Cadre Holdings, Inc.'s positioning within the Aerospace & Defense segment means that commercial deliveries plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including aftermarket and MRO expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CDRE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CDRE a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Cadre Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Cadre Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +177.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CDRE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CDRE's 12 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cadre Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

VVXV2X, Inc.QOC 8.3AIRAAR Corp.QOC 8.1TXTTextron Inc.QOC 8.3BYRNByrna Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1ATROAstronics CorporationQOC 8.4LMTLockheed Martin CorporationQOC 8.0EHEHang Holdings LimitedQOC 6.5ARXSArxis, Inc.QOC 5.0ESLTElbit Systems Ltd.QOC 2.8BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: VVX · AIR · TXT · BYRN · ATRO · LMT · EH · ARXS · ESLT · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CDRE?

7 companies across all industries closest to CDRE’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

LYFTLyft, Inc.QOC 8.1MFINMedallion Financial Corp.QOC 8.1LFVNLifeVantage CorporationQOC 8.1VMDViemed Healthcare, Inc.QOC 8.1SBLKStar Bulk Carriers Corp.QOC 8.2SEBSeaboard CorporationQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LYFT · MFIN · LFVN · VMD · SBLK · SEB · NVDA

Where Does CDRE Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

CDRE is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cadre Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Cadre Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE)'s intrinsic value at $13.22 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.34 to $56.51. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.21 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CDRE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $31.10, 4 of 12 active models suggest CDRE may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $13.22, 57.5% below the current price of $31.10 — a consensus view that CDRE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cadre Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for CDRE?

Cadre Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CDRE?

CirclFi analyzes CDRE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CDRE?

Of the 12 models currently active on CDRE, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $56.51 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $1.34. CirclFi's published fair value for CDRE is the median of that range, $13.22, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 417% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CDRE a value trap in 2026?

Cadre Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE) has a median fair value of $13.22 — 57.5% below the current price of $31.10 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CDRE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CDRE valuation
  • Financial statements: Cadre Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001860543) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CDRE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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