Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) Fair Value 2026

ESLT · Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) trades at $731.26, approximately 117% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $337.26. QOC: 2.5/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ESLT
Price
$731.26
Quality Score
2.5/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.5/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $145.71, 80.1% below the current price of $731.26. Estimates range from $45.83 to $771.71. ESLT scores 2.5/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Elbit Systems Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($731.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$337.26 -53.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$47.96 -93.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$276.99 -62.1%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$143.67 -80.4%

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What Is Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Elbit Systems Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $240.61. Trading at its current price of $731.26, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 12 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -67.1%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $771.71 (+5.5%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $45.83 (-93.7%). This +99.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Elbit Systems Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ESLT?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ESLT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ESLT's intrinsic value at $337.26, implying -53.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ESLT Rank in Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC?

Among 10 Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC stocks, ESLT ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.5 signals below-average fundamentals.

Elbit Systems Ltd. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ESLT a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for ESLT. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Elbit Systems Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Elbit Systems Ltd. scores 2.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +99.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ESLT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ESLT's 13 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Elbit Systems Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: TDG · PKE · KRMN · CVU · DCO

Frequently Asked Questions About Elbit Systems Ltd.

What is Elbit Systems Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $337.26. The Quality of Company score is 2.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ESLT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $731.26, 1 of 13 active models suggest ESLT may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $145.71, 80.1% below the current price of $731.26 — a consensus view that ESLT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Elbit Systems Ltd.'s business model in Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.5 mean for ESLT?

Elbit Systems Ltd.'s QOC of 2.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ESLT?

CirclFi analyzes ESLT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ESLT a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for ESLT at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) has a median fair value of $145.71 — 80.1% below the current price of $731.26 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ESLT/ · Methodology

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