ICON plc (ICLR) Fair Value 2026

ICLR · Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, ICON plc (ICLR) trades at $172.08, approximately 254% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $48.61. QOC: 2.7/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ICLR
Price
$172.08
Quality Score
2.7/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +0.8% upside with 31% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.7/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is ICON plc (ICLR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, ICON plc (ICLR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $143.47, 16.6% below the current price of $172.08. Estimates range from $48.61 to $245.82. ICLR scores 2.7/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ICON plc Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($172.08)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $48.61 -71.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $153.82 -10.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $126.17 -26.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $173.52 +0.8%

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What Is ICON plc (ICLR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ICON plc's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $142.98. Trading at $172.08, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -16.9%), as 8 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +42.9% (fair value: $245.82), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -71.8% ($48.61). The spread between these extremes — +114.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ICLR?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ICLR. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ICLR's intrinsic value at $48.61, implying -71.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ICLR Rank in Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research?

Among 11 Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research stocks, ICLR ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.7 signals below-average fundamentals.

ICON plc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ICLR a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for ICLR. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for ICON plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, ICON plc earns a quality score of 2.7/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +114.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ICLR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ICLR's 13 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ICON plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research stocks with 13-model coverage

MEDPMedpace Holdings, Inc.QOC 10.0IQVIQVIA Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.7CRLCharles River Laboratories InteQOC 8.5NRCNRC HealthQOC 7.3MXCTMaxCyte, Inc.QOC 7.3OABIOmniAb, Inc.QOC 6.0BIAFbioAffinity Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.6ISPCiSpecimen Inc.QOC 5.0

Read investment analysis: MEDP · IQV · CRL · NRC · MXCT

Frequently Asked Questions About ICON plc

What is ICON plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, ICON plc (ICLR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $48.61. The Quality of Company score is 2.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ICLR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $172.08, 5 of 13 active models suggest ICLR may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $143.47, 16.6% below the current price of $172.08 — a consensus view that ICLR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ICON plc's business model in Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.7 mean for ICLR?

ICON plc's QOC of 2.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ICLR?

CirclFi analyzes ICLR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ICLR a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for ICLR at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, ICON plc (ICLR) has a median fair value of $143.47 — 16.6% below the current price of $172.08 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ICLR/ · Methodology

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