Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Fair Value 2026

MEDP · Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) trades at $530.19, approximately 41% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $375.48. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MEDP
Price
$530.19
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 10.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($530.19)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $375.48 -29.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $120.07 -77.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $352.87 -33.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $528.61 -0.3%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $385.74. Trading at its current price of $530.19, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -27.2%. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $762.58 (+43.8%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $120.07 (-77.4%). This +121.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MEDP?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MEDP. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MEDP's intrinsic value at $375.48, implying -29.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MEDP Rank in Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research?

Among 11 Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research stocks, MEDP ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places MEDP in the top tier.

Medpace Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MEDP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MEDP a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Medpace Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Medpace Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 10.0/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +121.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MEDP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MEDP's 12 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Medpace Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research stocks with 13-model coverage

IQVIQVIA Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.7CRLCharles River Laboratories InteQOC 8.5NRCNRC HealthQOC 7.3MXCTMaxCyte, Inc.QOC 7.3OABIOmniAb, Inc.QOC 6.0BIAFbioAffinity Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.6ISPCiSpecimen Inc.QOC 5.0INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 4.3

Read investment analysis: IQV · CRL · NRC · MXCT · OABI

Frequently Asked Questions About Medpace Holdings, Inc.

What is Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $375.48. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MEDP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $530.19, 2 of 12 active models suggest MEDP may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for MEDP?

Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MEDP?

CirclFi analyzes MEDP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MEDP a value trap in 2026?

Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MEDP.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access