Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Fair Value 2026

MEDP · Diagnostics & Research ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) trades at $611.57, versus a $455.03 median fair value across its 8 active models — 25.6% below the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $506.08.

Key Facts

Ticker
MEDP
Price
$611.57
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $455.03, 25.6% below the current price of $611.57. Estimates range from $131.42 to $582.49. MEDP scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MEDP’s -25.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Diagnostics & Research sector median is -54.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Medpace Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MEDP?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($611.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $506.08 -17.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $434.84 -28.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $539.58 -11.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $131.42 -78.5%
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What Is MEDP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $131.42 to $582.49

CirclFi's 8 active models place Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) between $131.42 and $582.49 per share, a spread of 99% of the median. The median of that range — $455.03 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MEDP, against a current price of $611.57.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$131.42median $455.03$582.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$131.42
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$582.49
Model agreement0 bullish · 7 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MEDP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $455.03. Trading at its current price of $611.57, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -25.6%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $582.49 (-4.8%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $131.42 (-78.5%). This +73.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MEDP?

8 of 13 models are currently active for MEDP. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MEDP is $455.03 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $506.08 on its own, implying -17.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MEDP Rank in Diagnostics & Research?

Among 52 Diagnostics & Research stocks, MEDP ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places MEDP in the top tier.

Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s positioning within the Diagnostics & Research segment means that pipeline depth and stage distribution plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including regulatory pathway clarity — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MEDP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MEDP a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Medpace Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Medpace Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.3/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +73.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MEDP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MEDP's 8 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Medpace Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Diagnostics & Research Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Diagnostics & Research stocks with 13-model coverage

IDXXIDEXX Laboratories, Inc.QOC 9.5AAgilent Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1MDXHMDxHealth SAQOC 2.3VCYTVeracyte, Inc.QOC 8.8MBAIMBody AI Corp.QOC 2.5ILMNIllumina, Inc.QOC 8.8LHLabcorp Holdings Inc.QOC 7.7RDNTRadNet, Inc.QOC 6.7ADVBAdvanced Biomed Inc.QOC 5.0

Read investment analysis: IDXX · A · MDXH · VCYT · MBAI · ILMN · LH · RDNT · ADVB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MEDP?

7 companies across all industries closest to MEDP’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

UIUbiquiti Inc.QOC 9.3SHOPShopify Inc.QOC 9.3EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3AZNAstraZeneca PLCQOC 9.3MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.QOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UI · SHOP · EAT · AZN · MCRI · AMP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Medpace Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP)'s intrinsic value at $455.03 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $131.42 to $582.49. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $506.08 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MEDP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $611.57, 0 of 8 active models suggest MEDP may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $455.03, 25.6% below the current price of $611.57 — a consensus view that MEDP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Diagnostics & Research.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for MEDP?

Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MEDP?

CirclFi analyzes MEDP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MEDP?

Of the 8 models currently active on MEDP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $582.49 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $131.42. CirclFi's published fair value for MEDP is the median of that range, $455.03, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 99% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MEDP a value trap in 2026?

Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) has a median fair value of $455.03 — 25.6% below the current price of $611.57 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MEDP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MEDP valuation
  • Financial statements: Medpace Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001668397) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MEDP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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