Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Fair Value 2026

SWBI · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) trades at $12.78, versus a $10.22 median fair value across its 12 active models — 20.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $4.64.

Key Facts

Ticker
SWBI
Price
$12.78
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +102.8% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $10.22, 20.0% below the current price of $12.78. Estimates range from $3.86 to $29.97. SWBI scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SWBI’s -20.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -32.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SWBI?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.78)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.64 -63.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.13 -20.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.31 -19.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $25.92 +102.8%
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What Is SWBI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $3.86 to $29.97

CirclFi's 12 active models place Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) between $3.86 and $29.97 per share, a spread of 255% of the median. The median of that range — $10.22 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SWBI, against a current price of $12.78.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$3.86median $10.22$29.97
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$3.86
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$29.97
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SWBI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SWBI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. at its current price of $12.78. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $10.22 (-20.0% vs price), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $29.97 (+134.5%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $3.86 (-69.8%). This +204.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SWBI?

12 of 13 models are currently active for SWBI. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SWBI is $10.22 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $4.64 on its own, implying -63.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SWBI Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, SWBI ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places SWBI in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

As a aerospace and defense sector, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. operates in a sector where defense budget allocation is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SWBI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SWBI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SWBI a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.0/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +204.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SWBI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SWBI's 12 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

LMTLockheed Martin CorporationQOC 8.0LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.9BYRNByrna Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1CAECAE Inc.QOC 7.8AIRAAR Corp.QOC 8.1EMBJEmbraer S.A.QOC 7.8POWWOutdoor Holding CompanyQOC 6.5HLEOHelio CorporationQOC 4.8HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: LMT · LHX · BYRN · CAE · AIR · EMBJ · POWW · HLEO · HWM · BUKS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SWBI?

7 companies across all industries closest to SWBI’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.QOC 8.0GRANGrande Group LimitedQOC 8.0TRIPTripadvisor, Inc.QOC 8.0PHINPHINIA Inc.QOC 8.0TRSTriMas CorporationQOC 8.0FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SITE · GRAN · TRIP · PHIN · TRS · FANG · NVDA

Where Does SWBI Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

SWBI is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI)'s intrinsic value at $10.22 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.86 to $29.97. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $4.64 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SWBI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.78, 4 of 12 active models suggest SWBI may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $10.22, 20.0% below the current price of $12.78 — a consensus view that SWBI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for SWBI?

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SWBI?

CirclFi analyzes SWBI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SWBI?

Of the 12 models currently active on SWBI, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $29.97 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $3.86. CirclFi's published fair value for SWBI is the median of that range, $10.22, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 255% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SWBI a value trap in 2026?

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) has a median fair value of $10.22 — 20.0% below the current price of $12.78 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SWBI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SWBI valuation
  • Financial statements: Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001092796) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SWBI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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