Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU) Fair Value 2026

MBUU · Recreational Vehicles ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU) trades at $28.80, versus a $19.89 median fair value across its 13 active models — 30.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.88.

Key Facts

Ticker
MBUU
Price
$28.80
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +7.3% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $19.89, 30.9% below the current price of $28.80. Estimates range from $1.20 to $69.58. MBUU scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MBUU’s -30.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Malibu Boats, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MBUU?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($28.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.88 -55.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.50 -21.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $19.89 -30.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $30.89 +7.3%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 9 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 13 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is MBUU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $1.20 to $69.58

CirclFi's 13 active models place Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU) between $1.20 and $69.58 per share, a spread of 344% of the median. The median of that range — $19.89 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MBUU, against a current price of $28.80.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$1.20median $19.89$69.58
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$1.20
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$69.58
Model agreement3 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MBUU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MBUU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Malibu Boats, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $19.89, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $28.80. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-30.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +141.6% (fair value: $69.58), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -95.8% ($1.20). The spread between these extremes — +237.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MBUU?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MBUU. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MBUU is $19.89 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.88 on its own, implying -55.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MBUU Rank in Recreational Vehicles?

Among 17 Recreational Vehicles stocks, MBUU ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Recreational Vehicles space, Malibu Boats, Inc. competes in an environment where average transaction price (ATP) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MBUU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MBUU a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Malibu Boats, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Malibu Boats, Inc. is rated at 7.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +237.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MBUU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MBUU's 13 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Malibu Boats, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Recreational Vehicles Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Recreational Vehicles stocks with 13-model coverage

THOTHOR Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8BCBrunswick CorporationQOC 7.3DOOBRP Inc.QOC 7.8WGOWinnebago Industries, Inc.QOC 7.3LCIILCI IndustriesQOC 8.0MAMOMassimo GroupQOC 7.2PIIPolaris Inc.QOC 6.8MCOMMicromobility.com Inc.QOC 4.5MCFTMasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.QOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: THO · BC · DOO · WGO · LCII · MAMO · PII · MCOM · MCFT · HOG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MBUU?

7 companies across all industries closest to MBUU’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

ELPCCompanhia Paranaense de EnergiaQOC 7.5GTYGetty Realty Corp.QOC 7.5AMRCAmeresco, Inc.QOC 7.5BDTXBlack Diamond Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.5ARKOArko Corp.QOC 7.5JAKKJAKKS Pacific, Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ELPC · GTY · AMRC · BDTX · ARKO · JAKK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Malibu Boats, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Malibu Boats, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU)'s intrinsic value at $19.89 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.20 to $69.58. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.88 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MBUU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $28.80, 3 of 13 active models suggest MBUU may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $19.89, 30.9% below the current price of $28.80 — a consensus view that MBUU is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Malibu Boats, Inc.'s business model in Recreational Vehicles.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for MBUU?

Malibu Boats, Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MBUU?

CirclFi analyzes MBUU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MBUU?

Of the 13 models currently active on MBUU, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $69.58 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $1.20. CirclFi's published fair value for MBUU is the median of that range, $19.89, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 344% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MBUU a value trap in 2026?

Malibu Boats, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU) has a median fair value of $19.89 — 30.9% below the current price of $28.80 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MBUU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MBUU valuation
  • Financial statements: Malibu Boats, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001590976) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MBUU as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 13 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MBUU.

Unlock All 13 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

9 models hidden for MBUU Unlock All 13 — $39/mo