Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) Fair Value 2026

PATK · Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) trades at $84.28, approximately 38% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $134.89. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PATK
Price
$84.28
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +71.2% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($84.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$134.89 +60.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$67.95 -19.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$93.71 +11.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$144.30 +71.2%

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What Is Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Patrick Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $95.89, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $84.28. With an average implied return of +13.8% across a split 6–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +233.5% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +161.2% (fair value: $220.15), while EROIC is the most conservative at -72.3% ($23.33). The spread between these extremes — +233.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PATK?

12 of 13 models are currently active for PATK. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PATK's intrinsic value at $134.89, implying +60.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PATK Rank in Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories?

Among 34 Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories stocks, PATK ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places PATK in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories Stocks →

Patrick Industries, Inc.'s positioning within the Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories segment means that warranty cost ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including autonomous driving technology — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PATK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PATK a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Patrick Industries, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Patrick Industries, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +233.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PATK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PATK's 12 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Patrick Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: DORM · ALV · ALSN · ATMU · GNTX

See all Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Patrick Industries, Inc.

What is Patrick Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $134.89. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PATK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $84.28, 6 of 12 active models suggest PATK may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Patrick Industries, Inc.'s business model in Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for PATK?

Patrick Industries, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PATK?

CirclFi analyzes PATK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PATK a value trap in 2026?

Patrick Industries, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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