Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) Fair Value 2026

PATK · Recreational Vehicles ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) trades at $83.47, versus a $75.18 median fair value across its 12 active models — 9.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $131.30.

Key Facts

Ticker
PATK
Price
$83.47
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +204.7% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $75.18, within 9.9% of the current price of $83.47. Estimates range from $30.42 to $254.35. PATK scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. PATK’s -9.9% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Patrick Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PATK?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($83.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $131.30 +57.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.10 -54.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $76.24 -8.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $254.35 +204.7%
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What Is PATK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $30.42 to $254.35

CirclFi's 12 active models place Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) between $30.42 and $254.35 per share, a spread of 298% of the median. The median of that range — $75.18 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PATK, against a current price of $83.47.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$30.42median $75.18$254.35
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$30.42
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$254.35
Model agreement4 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PATK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PATK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Patrick Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $75.18. Trading at $83.47, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -9.9%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +204.7% (fair value: $254.35), while EROIC is the most conservative at -63.6% ($30.42). The spread between these extremes — +268.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PATK?

12 of 13 models are currently active for PATK. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PATK is $75.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $131.30 on its own, implying +57.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PATK Rank in Recreational Vehicles?

Among 17 Recreational Vehicles stocks, PATK ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places PATK in the top tier.

Patrick Industries, Inc.'s positioning within the Recreational Vehicles segment means that warranty cost ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including autonomous driving technology — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PATK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PATK a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Patrick Industries, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Patrick Industries, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +268.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PATK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PATK's 12 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Patrick Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Recreational Vehicles Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Recreational Vehicles stocks with 13-model coverage

MCFTMasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2LCIILCI IndustriesQOC 8.0HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.QOC 8.8DOOBRP Inc.QOC 7.8EZGOEZGO Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.3THOTHOR Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8BCBrunswick CorporationQOC 7.3PIIPolaris Inc.QOC 6.8MCOMMicromobility.com Inc.QOC 4.5

Read investment analysis: MCFT · LCII · HOG · DOO · EZGO · THO · BC · PII · MCOM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PATK?

7 companies across all industries closest to PATK’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

CSGPCoStar Group, Inc.QOC 8.1WNCWabash National CorporationQOC 8.1GTECGreenland Technologies Holding CorporationQOC 8.1NENoble Corporation plcQOC 8.1PRSUPursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc.QOC 8.1UHTUniversal Health Realty Income TrustQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CSGP · WNC · GTEC · NE · PRSU · UHT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Patrick Industries, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Patrick Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK)'s intrinsic value at $75.18 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $30.42 to $254.35. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $131.30 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PATK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $83.47, 4 of 12 active models suggest PATK may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $75.18, within 9.9% of the current price of $83.47 — a consensus view that PATK is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Patrick Industries, Inc.'s business model in Recreational Vehicles.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for PATK?

Patrick Industries, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PATK?

CirclFi analyzes PATK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PATK?

Of the 12 models currently active on PATK, First Chicago is the most bullish at $254.35 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $30.42. CirclFi's published fair value for PATK is the median of that range, $75.18, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 298% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PATK a value trap in 2026?

Patrick Industries, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) has a median fair value of $75.18 — within 9.9% of the current price of $83.47 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PATK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PATK valuation
  • Financial statements: Patrick Industries, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000076605) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PATK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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