Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Fair Value 2026

SPCX · Aerospace & Defense · 2026-08-27

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) trades at $140.87. QOC: 4.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker: SPCX
Price: $140.87
Quality Score: 4.0/10
Value Trap Risk: 0/100
Models Active: 1/13
Last Updated: 2026-08-27

Strength: 1 independent models provide multi-angle coverage

Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SPCX?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($140.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model	Fair Value	Upside
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative · Low Conviction	$78.40	-44.3%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $78.40. Trading at its current price of $140.87, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 1 of 1 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -44.3%.

What Do the Models Say About SPCX?

1 of 13 models are currently active for SPCX. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPCX Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, SPCX ranks #81 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

The Aerospace & Defense sector introduces analytical considerations specific to aerospace and defense businesses. For Space Exploration Technologies Corp., metrics like backlog-to-revenue ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SPCX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPCX a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Space Exploration Technologies Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. scores 4.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPCX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPCX's 1 active models, average confidence is 12%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

HAWKHawkEye 360, Inc.QOC 4.0 AVEXAEVEX Corp.QOC 3.8 BLISNAPC Defense IncQOC 4.0 BRQLDynamic Aerospace SystemsQOC 3.8 PHGEBiomX Inc.QOC 4.0 ELMTThe Elmet Group Co.QOC 3.8 CODACoda Octopus Group, Inc.QOC 8.6 BAThe Boeing CompanyQOC 7.4 SPAISafe Pro Group Inc.QOC 5.6 BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4 HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: HAWK · AVEX · BLIS · BRQL · PHGE · ELMT · CODA · BA · SPAI · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SPCX?

6 companies across all industries closest to SPCX’s Quality of Company score of 4.0/10.

NERVMinerva Neurosciences, Inc.QOC 4.0 CHAICore AI HoldingsQOC 4.0 ETCGGrayscale Ethereum Classic Trust (ETC)QOC 4.0 EROKEagleRock Land LLCQOC 4.0 AIXCAIxCrypto Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.0 NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NERV · CHAI · ETCG · EROK · AIXC · NVDA

Where Does SPCX Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

SPCX is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Space Exploration Technologies Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX). The Quality of Company score is 4.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPCX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $140.87, 0 of 1 active models suggest SPCX may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.0 mean for SPCX?

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s QOC of 4.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPCX?

CirclFi analyzes SPCX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SPCX a value trap in 2026?

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) a Quality of Company score of 4.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SPCX/ · Methodology

Primary sources for this SPCX valuation

Financial statements: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001181412) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SPCX as of 2026-08-27; valuations recomputed 2026-08-27.