CAE Inc. (CAE) Fair Value 2026

CAE · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, CAE Inc. (CAE) trades at $24.90, versus a $21.04 median fair value across its 10 active models — 15.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.94.

Key Facts

Ticker
CAE
Price
$24.90
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +191.2% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is CAE Inc. (CAE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, CAE Inc. (CAE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $21.04, 15.5% below the current price of $24.90. Estimates range from $6.80 to $72.50. CAE scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CAE’s -15.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy CAE Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CAE?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.94 -28.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.02 -71.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $24.14 -3.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $72.50 +191.2%
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What Is CAE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $6.80 to $72.50

CirclFi's 10 active models place CAE Inc. (CAE) between $6.80 and $72.50 per share, a spread of 312% of the median. The median of that range — $21.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CAE, against a current price of $24.90.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$6.80median $21.04$72.50
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$6.80
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$72.50
Model agreement4 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CAE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CAE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is CAE Inc. (CAE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CAE Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $21.04, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $24.90. While the median implied return is -15.5%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +263.8% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $72.50 (+191.2%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $6.80 (-72.7%). This +263.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about CAE Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CAE?

10 of 13 models are currently active for CAE. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CAE is $21.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.94 on its own, implying -28.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CAE Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, CAE ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Within the Aerospace & Defense space, CAE Inc. competes in an environment where defense budget allocation often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CAE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CAE a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for CAE Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, CAE Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +263.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CAE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CAE's 10 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CAE Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.9EMBJEmbraer S.A.QOC 7.8SWBISmith & Wesson Brands, Inc.QOC 8.0FTAIFTAI Aviation Ltd.QOC 7.8LMTLockheed Martin CorporationQOC 8.0HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.QOC 7.7PEWGrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4EVEXEve Holding, Inc.QOC 4.7DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.QOC 9.0BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: LHX · EMBJ · SWBI · FTAI · LMT · HII · PEW · EVEX · DRS · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CAE?

7 companies across all industries closest to CAE’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

MFCManulife Financial CorporationQOC 7.8APOGApogee Enterprises, Inc.QOC 7.8VALUValue Line, Inc.QOC 7.8EMNEastman Chemical CompanyQOC 7.8BORRBorr Drilling LimitedQOC 7.8PDEXPro-Dex, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MFC · APOG · VALU · EMN · BORR · PDEX · NVDA

Where Does CAE Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

CAE is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About CAE Inc.’s Valuation?

What is CAE Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts CAE Inc. (CAE)'s intrinsic value at $21.04 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.80 to $72.50. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.94 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CAE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.90, 4 of 10 active models suggest CAE may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $21.04, 15.5% below the current price of $24.90 — a consensus view that CAE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CAE Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for CAE?

CAE Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CAE?

CirclFi analyzes CAE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CAE?

Of the 10 models currently active on CAE, First Chicago is the most bullish at $72.50 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $6.80. CirclFi's published fair value for CAE is the median of that range, $21.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 312% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CAE a value trap in 2026?

CAE Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, CAE Inc. (CAE) has a median fair value of $21.04 — 15.5% below the current price of $24.90 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CAE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CAE valuation
  • Financial statements: CAE Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001173382) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CAE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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