Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB) Fair Value 2026

BWB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB) trades at $21.32, versus a $18.76 median fair value across its 5 active models — 12.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BWB
Price
$21.32
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $18.76, 12.0% below the current price of $21.32. Estimates range from $13.95 to $32.58. BWB scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BWB’s -12.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BWB?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.95 -34.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $18.76 -12.0%
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What Is BWB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $13.95 to $32.58

CirclFi's 5 active models place Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB) between $13.95 and $32.58 per share, a spread of 99% of the median. The median of that range — $18.76 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BWB, against a current price of $21.32.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$13.95median $18.76$32.58
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$13.95
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$32.58
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BWB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $18.76, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $21.32. With 4 out of 5 models flagging downside (-12.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $32.58 (+52.8%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $13.95 (-34.6%). This +87.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BWB?

5 of 13 models are currently active for BWB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BWB is $18.76 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BWB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, BWB ranks #168 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places BWB in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a banking sector, Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. operates in a sector where loan loss provisions is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating BWB should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is BWB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BWB a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. is rated at 8.0/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +87.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BWB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BWB's 5 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

INDBIndependent Bank Corp.QOC 8.0FRMEFirst Merchants CorporationQOC 8.0FFBCFirst Financial Bancorp.QOC 8.0UBSIUnited Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.0KEYKeyCorpQOC 8.0GABCGerman American Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.0FKYSFirst Keystone CorporationQOC 7.5URSBURSB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 5.0HAFCHanmi Financial CorporationQOC 8.4STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: INDB · FRME · FFBC · UBSI · KEY · GABC · FKYS · URSB · HAFC · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BWB?

7 companies across all industries closest to BWB’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

LMTLockheed Martin CorporationQOC 8.0LCIILCI IndustriesQOC 8.0ENTGEntegris, Inc.QOC 8.0FTVFortive CorporationQOC 8.0TGTTarget CorporationQOC 8.0NPOEnpro Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LMT · LCII · ENTG · FTV · TGT · NPO · NVDA

Where Does BWB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

BWB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB)'s intrinsic value at $18.76 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $13.95 to $32.58. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BWB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.32, 1 of 5 active models suggest BWB may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $18.76, 12.0% below the current price of $21.32 — a consensus view that BWB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for BWB?

Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BWB?

CirclFi analyzes BWB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BWB?

Of the 5 models currently active on BWB, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $32.58 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $13.95. CirclFi's published fair value for BWB is the median of that range, $18.76, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 99% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BWB a value trap in 2026?

Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB) has a median fair value of $18.76 — 12.0% below the current price of $21.32 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BWB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BWB valuation
  • Financial statements: Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001341317) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BWB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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