KeyCorp (KEY) Fair Value 2026

KEY · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, KeyCorp (KEY) trades at $22.02, versus a $14.63 median fair value across its 6 active models — 33.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KEY
Price
$22.02
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is KeyCorp (KEY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, KeyCorp (KEY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $14.63, 33.5% below the current price of $22.02. Estimates range from $5.24 to $32.78. KEY scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. KEY’s -33.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy KeyCorp Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KEY?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($22.02)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.74 -46.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $13.47 -38.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.24 -76.2%
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What Is KEY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $5.24 to $32.78

CirclFi's 6 active models place KeyCorp (KEY) between $5.24 and $32.78 per share, a spread of 188% of the median. The median of that range — $14.63 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KEY, against a current price of $22.02.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$5.24median $14.63$32.78
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$5.24
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$32.78
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KEY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KEY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is KeyCorp (KEY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, KeyCorp's intrinsic value is estimated at $14.63, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $22.02. With 5 out of 6 models flagging downside (-33.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $32.78 (+48.9%), versus Markov DDM at $5.24 (-76.2%). This +125.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About KEY?

6 of 13 models are currently active for KEY. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KEY is $14.63 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KEY Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, KEY ranks #163 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places KEY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Within the Banks - Regional space, KeyCorp competes in an environment where CET1 capital ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is KEY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KEY a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for KeyCorp. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, KeyCorp's fundamental quality profile registers 8.0/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +125.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KEY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KEY's 6 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy KeyCorp Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

BCHBanco de ChileQOC 8.1FFBCFirst Financial Bancorp.QOC 8.0PGCPeapack-Gladstone Financial CorporationQOC 8.1INDBIndependent Bank Corp.QOC 8.0COSOCoastalSouth Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.1BWBBridgewater Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.0MNSBMainStreet Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.5BSPABallston Spa Bancorp, Inc.QOC 5.3AMTBAmerant Bancorp Inc.QOC 8.4ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: BCH · FFBC · PGC · INDB · COSO · BWB · MNSB · BSPA · AMTB · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KEY?

7 companies across all industries closest to KEY’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

VOXRVox Royalty Corp.QOC 8.0BACBank of America CorporationQOC 8.0CRECre8 Enterprise LimitedQOC 8.0CENXCentury Aluminum CompanyQOC 8.0CACICACI International IncQOC 8.1WLYBJohn Wiley & Sons, Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VOXR · BAC · CRE · CENX · CACI · WLYB · NVDA

Where Does KEY Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

KEY is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About KeyCorp’s Valuation?

What is KeyCorp's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts KeyCorp (KEY)'s intrinsic value at $14.63 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.24 to $32.78. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KEY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $22.02, 1 of 6 active models suggest KEY may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $14.63, 33.5% below the current price of $22.02 — a consensus view that KEY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits KeyCorp's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for KEY?

KeyCorp's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KEY?

CirclFi analyzes KEY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KEY?

Of the 6 models currently active on KEY, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $32.78 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $5.24. CirclFi's published fair value for KEY is the median of that range, $14.63, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 188% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KEY a value trap in 2026?

KeyCorp's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, KeyCorp (KEY) has a median fair value of $14.63 — 33.5% below the current price of $22.02 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KEY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KEY valuation
  • Financial statements: KeyCorp 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000091576) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KEY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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