Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Fair Value 2026

ACGL · Insurance - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) trades at $98.76, versus a $140.40 median fair value across its 6 active models — 42.2% above the current price. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACGL
Price
$98.76
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +42.3% upside with 19% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $140.40, 42.2% above the current price of $98.76. Estimates range from $116.19 to $304.52. ACGL scores 9.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ACGL’s +42.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Arch Capital Group Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ACGL?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($98.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $140.22 +42.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $140.57 +42.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $125.23 +26.8%
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What Is ACGL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $116.19 to $304.52

CirclFi's 6 active models place Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) between $116.19 and $304.52 per share, a spread of 134% of the median. The median of that range — $140.40 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ACGL, against a current price of $98.76.

Low · FTNNHigh · ML-RIV
$116.19median $140.40$304.52
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$116.19
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$304.52
Model agreement6 bullish · 0 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ACGL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ACGL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Arch Capital Group Ltd.. Trading at $98.76 against an estimated intrinsic value of $140.40, 6 of 6 active models flag meaningful upside of +42.2% at the median. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $304.52 (+208.3%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $116.19 (+17.6%). This +190.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ACGL?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ACGL. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ACGL is $140.40 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACGL Rank in Insurance - Diversified?

Among 10 Insurance - Diversified stocks, ACGL ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places ACGL in the top tier.

As a insurance industry, Arch Capital Group Ltd. operates in a sector where expense ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ACGL should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ACGL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACGL a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Arch Capital Group Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.2/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +190.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACGL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACGL's 6 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Arch Capital Group Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

XZOExzeo Group, Inc.QOC 8.9HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.7IGICInternational General Insurance Holdings Ltd.QOC 8.7AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.QOC 7.7BNTBrookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd.QOC 7.7WDHWaterdrop Inc.QOC 7.6SLFSun Life Financial Inc.QOC 7.1AEGAegon Ltd.QOC 6.7SUNDSundance Strategies, Inc.QOC 3.5

Read investment analysis: XZO · HIG · IGIC · AIG · BNT · WDH · SLF · AEG · SUND

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ACGL?

7 companies across all industries closest to ACGL’s Quality of Company score of 9.2/10.

CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc.QOC 9.2UPWKUpwork Inc.QOC 9.2HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.2DXCMDexCom, Inc.QOC 9.2PRIPrimerica, Inc.QOC 9.2CWCurtiss-Wright CorporationQOC 9.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CDNS · UPWK · HRMY · DXCM · PRI · CW · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Arch Capital Group Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)'s intrinsic value at $140.40 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $116.19 to $304.52. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACGL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $98.76, 6 of 6 active models suggest ACGL may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $140.40, 42.2% above the current price of $98.76 — a consensus view that ACGL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s business model in Insurance - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for ACGL?

Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACGL?

CirclFi analyzes ACGL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ACGL?

Of the 6 models currently active on ACGL, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $304.52 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $116.19. CirclFi's published fair value for ACGL is the median of that range, $140.40, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 134% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ACGL a value trap in 2026?

Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) has a median fair value of $140.40 — 42.2% above the current price of $98.76 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ACGL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ACGL valuation
  • Financial statements: Arch Capital Group Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000947484) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ACGL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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