Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos (ACGLO) Fair Value 2026

ACGLO · Insurance - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos (ACGLO) trades at $19.08. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACGLO
Price
$19.08
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: EROIC Spread suggests +491.6% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.08)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$90.84 +376.1%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
$112.88 +491.6%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
$30.51 +59.9%

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What Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos (ACGLO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $49.42. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $19.08 (implied upside of +159.0%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 4 of 6 bullish models. Notably, EROIC sees the most upside at +491.6% (fair value: $112.88), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -74.5% ($4.87). The spread between these extremes — +566.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ACGLO?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ACGLO. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACGLO Rank in Insurance - Diversified?

Among 5 Insurance - Diversified stocks, ACGLO ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places ACGLO in the top tier.

The Insurance - Diversified sector introduces analytical considerations specific to underwriting business businesses. For Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos, metrics like expense ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ACGLO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACGLO a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos earns a quality score of 10.0/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +566.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACGLO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACGLO's 6 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Insurance - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ACGL · ACGLN · AIG · AEG

Frequently Asked Questions About Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos

What is Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos (ACGLO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACGLO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.08, 4 of 6 active models suggest ACGLO may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's business model in Insurance - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for ACGLO?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACGLO?

CirclFi analyzes ACGLO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ACGLO a value trap in 2026?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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