Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos (ACGLN) Fair Value 2026

ACGLN · Insurance - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos (ACGLN) trades at $16.05. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 4/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACGLN
Price
$16.05
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +59.3% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (4/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.05)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
$25.57 +59.3%
Sentiment SOTP
Medium Conviction
$3.40 -78.8%

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What Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos (ACGLN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $21.61, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $16.05. While the average implied return is +34.6%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +281.3% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $48.56 (+202.5%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $3.40 (-78.8%). This +281.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ACGLN?

4 of 13 models are currently active for ACGLN. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACGLN Rank in Insurance - Diversified?

Among 5 Insurance - Diversified stocks, ACGLN ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places ACGLN in the top tier.

Within the Insurance - Diversified space, Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos competes in an environment where policy retention rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ACGLN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACGLN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's fundamental quality profile registers 10.0/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +281.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACGLN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACGLN's 4 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Insurance - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ACGL · ACGLO · AIG · AEG

Frequently Asked Questions About Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos

What is Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos (ACGLN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACGLN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.05, 2 of 4 active models suggest ACGLN may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's business model in Insurance - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for ACGLN?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACGLN?

CirclFi analyzes ACGLN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ACGLN a value trap in 2026?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Depos's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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