American International Group, I (AIG) Fair Value 2026

AIG · Insurance - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, American International Group, I (AIG) trades at $79.90, approximately 73% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $298.26. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AIG
Price
$79.90
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +273.3% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($79.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$298.26 +273.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$107.68 +34.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$148.45 +85.8%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$76.60 -4.1%

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What Is American International Group, I (AIG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, American International Group, I presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $79.90. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $130.14 (+62.9% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 3 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $299.38 (+274.7%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $43.80 (-45.2%). This +319.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AIG?

11 of 13 models are currently active for AIG. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AIG's intrinsic value at $298.26, implying +273.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AIG Rank in Insurance - Diversified?

Among 5 Insurance - Diversified stocks, AIG ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Insurance - Diversified space, American International Group, I competes in an environment where reserve adequacy often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AIG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AIG a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for American International Group, I. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, American International Group, I's fundamental quality profile registers 7.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +319.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AIG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AIG's 11 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy American International Group, I Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Insurance - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ACGL · ACGLN · ACGLO · AEG

Frequently Asked Questions About American International Group, I

What is American International Group, I's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, American International Group, I (AIG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $298.26. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AIG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $79.90, 7 of 11 active models suggest AIG may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits American International Group, I's business model in Insurance - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for AIG?

American International Group, I's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AIG?

CirclFi analyzes AIG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AIG a value trap in 2026?

American International Group, I's Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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