NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) Fair Value 2026

NATL · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) trades at $46.26, versus a $71.86 median fair value across its 10 active models — 55.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NATL
Price
$46.26
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +483.3% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $71.86, 55.3% above the current price of $46.26. Estimates range from $22.80 to $269.82. NATL scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NATL’s +55.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NCR Atleos Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NATL?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($46.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.96 -48.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $68.99 +49.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $269.82 +483.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.80 -50.7%
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What Is NATL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $22.80 to $269.82

CirclFi's 10 active models place NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) between $22.80 and $269.82 per share, a spread of 344% of the median. The median of that range — $71.86 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NATL, against a current price of $46.26.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$22.80median $71.86$269.82
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$22.80
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$269.82
Model agreement7 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NATL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NATL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on NCR Atleos Corporation at $46.26. With an estimated intrinsic value of $71.86 and 7 of 10 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +55.3%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $269.82 (+483.3%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $22.80 (-50.7%). This +534.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NCR Atleos Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NATL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for NATL. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NATL is $71.86 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NATL Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, NATL ranks #68 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places NATL in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

As a technology sector, NCR Atleos Corporation operates in a sector where annual recurring revenue (ARR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NATL should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NATL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NATL a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for NCR Atleos Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, NCR Atleos Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.1/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +534.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NATL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NATL's 10 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NCR Atleos Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

PERFPerfect Corp.QOC 8.1HITHealth In Tech, Inc.QOC 8.1SRADSportradar Group AGQOC 8.1RNGRingCentral, Inc.QOC 8.1LYFTLyft, Inc.QOC 8.1DAVEDave Inc.QOC 8.0KCKingsoft Cloud Holdings LimitedQOC 6.7PSQHPSQ Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9

Read investment analysis: PERF · HIT · SRAD · RNG · LYFT · DAVE · KC · PSQH · PTC · ADSK

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NATL?

7 companies across all industries closest to NATL’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

VCIGVCI Global LimitedQOC 8.1TGTXTG Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.1JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co.QOC 8.1AXSAXIS Capital Holdings LimitedQOC 8.1TMToyota Motor CorporationQOC 8.1HQIHireQuest, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VCIG · TGTX · JPM · AXS · TM · HQI · NVDA

Where Does NATL Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

NATL is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About NCR Atleos Corporation’s Valuation?

What is NCR Atleos Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL)'s intrinsic value at $71.86 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $22.80 to $269.82. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NATL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $46.26, 7 of 10 active models suggest NATL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $71.86, 55.3% above the current price of $46.26 — a consensus view that NATL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NCR Atleos Corporation's business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for NATL?

NCR Atleos Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NATL?

CirclFi analyzes NATL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NATL?

Of the 10 models currently active on NATL, First Chicago is the most bullish at $269.82 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $22.80. CirclFi's published fair value for NATL is the median of that range, $71.86, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 344% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NATL a value trap in 2026?

NCR Atleos Corporation's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) has a median fair value of $71.86 — 55.3% above the current price of $46.26 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NATL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NATL valuation
  • Financial statements: NCR Atleos Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001974138) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NATL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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