TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) Fair Value 2026

TRST · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) trades at $57.13, versus a $38.44 median fair value across its 6 active models — 32.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TRST
Price
$57.13
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $38.44, 32.7% below the current price of $57.13. Estimates range from $28.87 to $49.75. TRST scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TRST’s -32.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TrustCo Bank Corp NY Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TRST?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($57.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.89 -35.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $37.85 -33.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.13 -29.7%
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What Is TRST's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $28.87 to $49.75

CirclFi's 6 active models place TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) between $28.87 and $49.75 per share, a spread of 54% of the median. The median of that range — $38.44 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TRST, against a current price of $57.13.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$28.87median $38.44$49.75
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$28.87
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$49.75
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TRST, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TrustCo Bank Corp NY's intrinsic value is estimated at $38.44, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $57.13. With 6 out of 6 models flagging downside (-32.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $49.75 (-12.9%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $28.87 (-49.5%). This +36.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about TrustCo Bank Corp NY's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TRST?

6 of 13 models are currently active for TRST. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for TRST is $38.44 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TRST Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, TRST ranks #154 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places TRST in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a banking sector, TrustCo Bank Corp NY operates in a sector where cost-to-income ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TRST should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TRST a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TRST a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for TrustCo Bank Corp NY. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, TrustCo Bank Corp NY's fundamental quality profile registers 8.1/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +36.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TRST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TRST's 6 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TrustCo Bank Corp NY Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

UWHRUwharrie Capital CorpQOC 8.1FNRNFirst Northern Community BancorpQOC 8.1FDBCFidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.1RNSTRenasant CorporationQOC 8.1CZNCCitizens & Northern CorporationQOC 8.1SMBCSouthern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.1PFBXPeoples Financial CorporationQOC 7.7WSBKWinchester Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.2CBSHCommerce Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.5STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: UWHR · FNRN · FDBC · RNST · CZNC · SMBC · PFBX · WSBK · CBSH · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TRST?

6 companies across all industries closest to TRST’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

SHELShell plcQOC 8.1TMToyota Motor CorporationQOC 8.1PECOPhillips Edison & Company, Inc.QOC 8.1JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co.QOC 8.1VCIGVCI Global LimitedQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SHEL · TM · PECO · JPM · VCIG · NVDA

Where Does TRST Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

TRST is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About TrustCo Bank Corp NY’s Valuation?

What is TrustCo Bank Corp NY's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST)'s intrinsic value at $38.44 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $28.87 to $49.75. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TRST overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $57.13, 0 of 6 active models suggest TRST may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $38.44, 32.7% below the current price of $57.13 — a consensus view that TRST is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TrustCo Bank Corp NY's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for TRST?

TrustCo Bank Corp NY's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TRST?

CirclFi analyzes TRST with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TRST?

Of the 6 models currently active on TRST, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $49.75 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $28.87. CirclFi's published fair value for TRST is the median of that range, $38.44, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 54% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TRST a value trap in 2026?

TrustCo Bank Corp NY's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) has a median fair value of $38.44 — 32.7% below the current price of $57.13 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TRST/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TRST valuation
  • Financial statements: TrustCo Bank Corp NY 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000357301) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TRST as of ; valuations recomputed .

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