TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) Fair Value 2026

TRST · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) trades at $54.68, approximately 57% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $126.81. QOC: 8.4/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TRST
Price
$54.68
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +131.9% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($54.68)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$126.81 +131.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$34.90 -36.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$70.81 +29.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$98.43 +80.0%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TrustCo Bank Corp NY's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $74.03, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $54.68. While the average implied return is +35.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +222.3% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $138.92 (+154.1%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $17.37 (-68.2%). This +222.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about TrustCo Bank Corp NY's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TRST?

12 of 13 models are currently active for TRST. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TRST's intrinsic value at $126.81, implying +131.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TRST Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 170 State Commercial Banks stocks, TRST ranks #70 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places TRST in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

As a banking sector, TrustCo Bank Corp NY operates in a sector where cost-to-income ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TRST should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TRST a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for TRST. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for TrustCo Bank Corp NY. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, TrustCo Bank Corp NY's fundamental quality profile registers 8.4/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +222.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TRST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TRST's 12 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TrustCo Bank Corp NY Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: BSVN · OFG · CZNC · NPB · UNTY

See all State Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About TrustCo Bank Corp NY

What is TrustCo Bank Corp NY's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $126.81. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TRST overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $54.68, 8 of 12 active models suggest TRST may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TrustCo Bank Corp NY's business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for TRST?

TrustCo Bank Corp NY's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TRST?

CirclFi analyzes TRST with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TRST a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for TRST at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on TRST.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access