JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Fair Value 2026

JPM · Banks - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) trades at $331.28, versus a $253.66 median fair value across its 6 active models — 23.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
JPM
Price
$331.28
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $253.66, 23.4% below the current price of $331.28. Estimates range from $161.06 to $424.61. JPM scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. JPM’s -23.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Diversified sector median is -2.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give JPM?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($331.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $161.06 -51.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $246.56 -25.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $244.90 -26.1%
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What Is JPM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $161.06 to $424.61

CirclFi's 6 active models place JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) between $161.06 and $424.61 per share, a spread of 104% of the median. The median of that range — $253.66 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for JPM, against a current price of $331.28.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$161.06median $253.66$424.61
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$161.06
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$424.61
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for JPM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on JPM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $253.66, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $331.28. With 5 out of 6 models flagging downside (-23.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $424.61 (+28.2%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $161.06 (-51.4%). This +79.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About JPM?

6 of 13 models are currently active for JPM. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for JPM is $253.66 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JPM Rank in Banks - Diversified?

Among 20 Banks - Diversified stocks, JPM ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places JPM in the top tier.

Within the Banks - Diversified space, JPMorgan Chase & Co. competes in an environment where net interest margin (NIM) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is JPM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JPM a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for JPMorgan Chase & Co.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.1/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +79.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JPM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JPM's 6 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

BNYThe Bank of New York Mellon CorporationQOC 8.1BACBank of America CorporationQOC 8.1BCSBarclays PLCQOC 8.2MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.9WFCWells Fargo & CompanyQOC 8.3CCitigroup Inc.QOC 7.5TDThe Toronto-Dominion BankQOC 7.4UBSUBS Group AGQOC 2.9RYRoyal Bank of CanadaQOC 8.4BBVABanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.QOC 8.9CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: BNY · BAC · BCS · MUFG · WFC · C · TD · UBS · RY · BBVA · CM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to JPM?

7 companies across all industries closest to JPM’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NYQOC 8.1NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.QOC 8.1RPRXRoyalty Pharma plcQOC 8.1NATLNCR Atleos CorporationQOC 8.1SHWThe Sherwin-Williams CompanyQOC 8.1TFPMTriple Flag Precious Metals Corp.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TRST · NLY · RPRX · NATL · SHW · TFPM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Valuation?

What is JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)'s intrinsic value at $253.66 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $161.06 to $424.61. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JPM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $331.28, 1 of 6 active models suggest JPM may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $253.66, 23.4% below the current price of $331.28 — a consensus view that JPM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s business model in Banks - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for JPM?

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JPM?

CirclFi analyzes JPM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on JPM?

Of the 6 models currently active on JPM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $424.61 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $161.06. CirclFi's published fair value for JPM is the median of that range, $253.66, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 104% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is JPM a value trap in 2026?

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has a median fair value of $253.66 — 23.4% below the current price of $331.28 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/JPM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this JPM valuation
  • Financial statements: JPMorgan Chase & Co. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000019617) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for JPM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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