Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na (SBH) Fair Value 2026

SBH · Retail-Retail Stores, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na (SBH) trades at $14.69, approximately 62% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $39.17. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SBH
Price
$14.69
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +166.6% upside with 68% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$39.17 +166.6%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$20.84 +41.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$20.56 +40.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$7.46 -49.2%

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What Is Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na (SBH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na is potentially undervalued at its current price of $14.69. Based on our 13-model framework, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $20.17 — representing +37.3% implied upside — with 9 out of 12 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $39.17 (+166.6%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $5.00 (-66.0%). This +232.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SBH?

12 of 13 models are currently active for SBH. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SBH's intrinsic value at $39.17, implying +166.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SBH Rank in Retail-Retail Stores, NEC?

Among 18 Retail-Retail Stores, NEC stocks, SBH ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

As a consumer-facing company, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na operates in a sector where store traffic trends is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SBH should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SBH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SBH a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na is rated at 7.8/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +232.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SBH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SBH's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Retail Stores, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Retail-Retail Stores, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: JD · ULTA · SGU · BBWI · TITN

Frequently Asked Questions About Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na

What is Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na (SBH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $39.17. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SBH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.69, 9 of 12 active models suggest SBH may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na's business model in Retail-Retail Stores, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for SBH?

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SBH?

CirclFi analyzes SBH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SBH a value trap in 2026?

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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