Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) Fair Value 2026

SBH · Specialty Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) trades at $16.42, versus a $24.88 median fair value across its 10 active models — 51.5% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $31.82.

Key Facts

Ticker
SBH
Price
$16.42
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +93.8% upside with 72% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $24.88, 51.5% above the current price of $16.42. Estimates range from $12.19 to $40.07. SBH scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SBH’s +51.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Retail sector median is -15.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SBH?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.82 +93.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.02 +3.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $24.86 +51.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.19 -25.8%
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What Is SBH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $12.19 to $40.07

CirclFi's 10 active models place Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) between $12.19 and $40.07 per share, a spread of 112% of the median. The median of that range — $24.88 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SBH, against a current price of $16.42.

Low · EROICHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$12.19median $24.88$40.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$12.19
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$40.07
Model agreement8 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SBH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SBH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $16.42. Based on our 13-model framework, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $24.88 — representing +51.5% implied upside — with 8 out of 10 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $40.07 (+144.0%), versus EROIC at $12.19 (-25.8%). This +169.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SBH?

10 of 13 models are currently active for SBH. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SBH is $24.88 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $31.82 on its own, implying +93.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SBH Rank in Specialty Retail?

Among 49 Specialty Retail stocks, SBH ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places SBH in the top tier.

As a consumer-facing company, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where store traffic trends is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SBH should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SBH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SBH a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. is rated at 8.0/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +169.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SBH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SBH's 10 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Specialty Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.QOC 8.1MUSAMurphy USA Inc.QOC 7.8BBWIBath & Body Works, Inc.QOC 8.1EYENational Vision Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8TSCOTractor Supply CompanyQOC 8.3RHRHQOC 7.5SPWHSportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.3QSJCTancheng Group Co., Ltd.QOC 5.3ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BBY · MUSA · BBWI · EYE · TSCO · RH · SPWH · QSJC · ARHS · WSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SBH?

7 companies across all industries closest to SBH’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

GABCGerman American Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.0SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.0CMTCore Molding Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.0SAIASaia, Inc.QOC 8.0IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc.QOC 8.0LLoews CorporationQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GABC · SWKS · CMT · SAIA · IVR · L · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH)'s intrinsic value at $24.88 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.19 to $40.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $31.82 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SBH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.42, 9 of 10 active models suggest SBH may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $24.88, 51.5% above the current price of $16.42 — a consensus view that SBH is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for SBH?

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SBH?

CirclFi analyzes SBH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SBH?

Of the 10 models currently active on SBH, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $40.07 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $12.19. CirclFi's published fair value for SBH is the median of that range, $24.88, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 112% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SBH a value trap in 2026?

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) has a median fair value of $24.88 — 51.5% above the current price of $16.42 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SBH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SBH valuation
  • Financial statements: Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001368458) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SBH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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