GameStop Corp. (GME) Fair Value 2026

GME · Specialty Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, GameStop Corp. (GME) trades at $24.76, versus a $11.63 median fair value across its 9 active models — 53.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $9.05.

Key Facts

Ticker
GME
Price
$24.76
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is GameStop Corp. (GME) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, GameStop Corp. (GME) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $11.63, 53.0% below the current price of $24.76. Estimates range from $6.01 to $24.77. GME scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. GME’s -53.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Retail sector median is -5.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy GameStop Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GME?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.05 -63.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $11.63 -53.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.47 -49.6%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $6.01 -75.7%
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What Is GME's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $6.01 to $24.77

CirclFi's 9 active models place GameStop Corp. (GME) between $6.01 and $24.77 per share, a spread of 161% of the median. The median of that range — $11.63 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GME, against a current price of $24.76.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$6.01median $11.63$24.77
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$6.01
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$24.77
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GME. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GME, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is GameStop Corp. (GME) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, GameStop Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $11.63, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $24.76. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-53.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +0.1% (fair value: $24.77), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -75.7% ($6.01). The spread between these extremes — +75.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About GME?

9 of 13 models are currently active for GME. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GME is $11.63 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $9.05 on its own, implying -63.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GME Rank in Specialty Retail?

Among 48 Specialty Retail stocks, GME ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Specialty Retail space, GameStop Corp. competes in an environment where brand equity index often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is GME a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GME a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for GameStop Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, GameStop Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +75.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GME valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GME's 9 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy GameStop Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

ARKOArko Corp.QOC 7.5SVVSavers Value Village, Inc.QOC 7.2RHRHQOC 7.5RECTRectitude Holdings LtdQOC 7.2EYENational Vision Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8TLFTandy Leather Factory, Inc.QOC 7.1FLWS1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc.QOC 6.0AETNAeternum Resources Inc.QOC 4.5ASOAcademy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.QOC 8.5WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.QOC 9.3ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: ARKO · SVV · RH · RECT · EYE · TLF · FLWS · AETN · ASO · WSM · ARHS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GME?

7 companies across all industries closest to GME’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

LYGLloyds Banking Group plcQOC 7.4OUTOUTFRONT Media Inc.QOC 7.4GTIMGood Times Restaurants Inc.QOC 7.4SHLSShoals Technologies Group, Inc.QOC 7.4NTRNutrien Ltd.QOC 7.4DKNGDraftKings Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LYG · OUT · GTIM · SHLS · NTR · DKNG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About GameStop Corp.’s Valuation?

What is GameStop Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts GameStop Corp. (GME)'s intrinsic value at $11.63 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $6.01 to $24.77. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $9.05 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GME overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.76, 1 of 9 active models suggest GME may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $11.63, 53.0% below the current price of $24.76 — a consensus view that GME is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits GameStop Corp.'s business model in Specialty Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for GME?

GameStop Corp.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GME?

CirclFi analyzes GME with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GME?

Of the 9 models currently active on GME, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $24.77 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $6.01. CirclFi's published fair value for GME is the median of that range, $11.63, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 161% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GME a value trap in 2026?

GameStop Corp.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, GameStop Corp. (GME) has a median fair value of $11.63 — 53.0% below the current price of $24.76 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GME/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GME valuation
  • Financial statements: GameStop Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001326380) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GME as of ; valuations recomputed .

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