Ashland Inc. (ASH) Fair Value 2026

ASH · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ashland Inc. (ASH) trades at $73.94, versus a $76.57 median fair value across its 7 active models — 3.6% above the current price. QOC: 5.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $96.67.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASH
Price
$73.94
Quality Score
5.4/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +30.7% upside with 72% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Ashland Inc. (ASH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Ashland Inc. (ASH) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $76.57, within 3.6% of the current price of $73.94. Estimates range from $23.99 to $159.29. ASH scores 5.4/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ASH’s +3.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -35.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ashland Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ASH?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($73.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $96.67 +30.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $76.57 +3.6%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $23.99 -67.6%
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What Is ASH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $23.99 to $159.29

CirclFi's 7 active models place Ashland Inc. (ASH) between $23.99 and $159.29 per share, a spread of 177% of the median. The median of that range — $76.57 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ASH, against a current price of $73.94.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$23.99median $76.57$159.29
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$23.99
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$159.29
Model agreement3 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ASH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ASH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ashland Inc. (ASH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ashland Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $76.57, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $73.94. With a median implied return of +3.6% across a split 3–3 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +183.0% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +115.4% (fair value: $159.29), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -67.6% ($23.99). The spread between these extremes — +183.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ASH?

7 of 13 models are currently active for ASH. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ASH is $76.57 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $96.67 on its own, implying +30.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASH Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 69 Specialty Chemicals stocks, ASH ranks #54 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

Ashland Inc.'s positioning within the Specialty Chemicals segment means that book-to-bill ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automation and productivity gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ASH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASH a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Ashland Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ashland Inc. scores 5.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +183.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASH's 7 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ashland Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

BGLCBioNexus Gene Lab Corp.QOC 5.5CITRCitroTech Inc.QOC 5.3RLEARubber Leaf Inc.QOC 5.8LOOPLoop Industries, Inc.QOC 5.3BLGOBioLargo, Inc.QOC 5.9CLMTCalumet, Inc.QOC 4.9RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0SXTSensient Technologies CorporationQOC 8.0GLGIGreystone Logistics, Inc.QOC 6.8ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: BGLC · CITR · RLEA · LOOP · BLGO · CLMT · RPM · SXT · GLGI · ODC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ASH?

7 companies across all industries closest to ASH’s Quality of Company score of 5.4/10.

RDIBReading International, Inc.QOC 5.4VNTGVantage CorpQOC 5.4KZIAKazia Therapeutics LimitedQOC 5.4DBVTDBV Technologies S.A.QOC 5.4ASNSActelis Networks, Inc.QOC 5.4ZSPCzSpace, Inc.QOC 5.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RDIB · VNTG · KZIA · DBVT · ASNS · ZSPC · NVDA

Where Does ASH Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

ASH is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ashland Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ashland Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ashland Inc. (ASH)'s intrinsic value at $76.57 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $23.99 to $159.29. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $96.67 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $73.94, 4 of 7 active models suggest ASH may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $76.57, within 3.6% of the current price of $73.94 — a consensus view that ASH is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ashland Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.4 mean for ASH?

Ashland Inc.'s QOC of 5.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASH?

CirclFi analyzes ASH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ASH?

Of the 7 models currently active on ASH, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $159.29 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $23.99. CirclFi's published fair value for ASH is the median of that range, $76.57, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 177% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ASH a value trap in 2026?

Ashland Inc.'s Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Ashland Inc. (ASH) has a median fair value of $76.57 — within 3.6% of the current price of $73.94 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ASH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ASH valuation
  • Financial statements: Ashland Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001674862) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ASH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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