Ashland Inc. (ASH) Fair Value 2026

ASH · Wholesale-Chemicals & Allied Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Ashland Inc. (ASH) trades at $65.91, approximately 17% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $78.97. QOC: 5.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASH
Price
$65.91
Quality Score
5.3/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +274.6% upside with 76% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($65.91)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$78.97 +19.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$246.89 +274.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$164.64 +149.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$50.34 -23.6%

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What Is Ashland Inc. (ASH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ashland Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $88.88, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $65.91. With an average implied return of +34.9% across a split 5–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +367.1% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, EPV sees the most upside at +274.6% (fair value: $246.89), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -92.5% ($4.94). The spread between these extremes — +367.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ASH?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ASH. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ASH's intrinsic value at $78.97, implying +19.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASH Rank in Wholesale-Chemicals & Allied Products?

Among 3 Wholesale-Chemicals & Allied Products stocks, ASH ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Ashland Inc.'s positioning within the Wholesale-Chemicals & Allied Products segment means that book-to-bill ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automation and productivity gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ASH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASH a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Ashland Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ashland Inc. scores 5.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +367.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASH's 12 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ashland Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Wholesale-Chemicals & Allied Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Wholesale-Chemicals & Allied Products stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Ashland Inc.

What is Ashland Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Ashland Inc. (ASH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $78.97. The Quality of Company score is 5.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $65.91, 7 of 12 active models suggest ASH may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ashland Inc.'s business model in Wholesale-Chemicals & Allied Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.3 mean for ASH?

Ashland Inc.'s QOC of 5.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASH?

CirclFi analyzes ASH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ASH a value trap in 2026?

Ashland Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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