HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM) Fair Value 2026

HCM · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM) trades at $12.38. QOC: 2.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HCM
Price
$12.38
Quality Score
2.7/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: 1 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.7/10 signals weak fundamentals

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HCM?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $5.40 -56.4%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HUTCHMED (China) Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $5.40. Trading at its current price of $12.38, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 1 of 1 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -56.4%.

What Do the Models Say About HCM?

1 of 13 models are currently active for HCM. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HCM Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, HCM ranks #107 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.7 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

HUTCHMED (China) Limited's positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic segment means that biosimilar competition timeline plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including therapeutic area leadership — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HCM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HCM a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for HUTCHMED (China) Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HUTCHMED (China) Limited scores 2.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HCM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HCM's 1 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HUTCHMED (China) Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

GCANTrafalgar International, Inc.QOC 3.1KMDAKamada Ltd.QOC 2.6CTTHCTT Pharmaceutical Holdings, Inc.QOC 3.3BGMBGM Group Ltd.QOC 1.9GREHGreen Rain Energy Holdings Inc.QOC 3.3UPCUniverse Pharmaceuticals INCQOC 1.8CRONCronos Group Inc.QOC 7.4AYTUAytu BioPharma, Inc.QOC 6.1CANNTrees CorporationQOC 5.1UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: GCAN · KMDA · CTTH · BGM · GREH · UPC · CRON · AYTU · CANN · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HCM?

7 companies across all industries closest to HCM’s Quality of Company score of 2.7/10.

WFGWest Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.QOC 2.7LSELeishen Energy Holding Co., Ltd.QOC 2.7TSEMTower Semiconductor Ltd.QOC 2.7DDIDoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd.QOC 2.7ABLVAble View Global Inc.QOC 2.7SQMSociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.QOC 2.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WFG · LSE · TSEM · DDI · ABLV · SQM · NVDA

Where Does HCM Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

HCM is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About HUTCHMED (China) Limited’s Valuation?

What is HUTCHMED (China) Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM). The Quality of Company score is 2.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HCM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.38, 0 of 1 active models suggest HCM may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HUTCHMED (China) Limited's business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.7 mean for HCM?

HUTCHMED (China) Limited's QOC of 2.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HCM?

CirclFi analyzes HCM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HCM a value trap in 2026?

HUTCHMED (China) Limited's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM) a Quality of Company score of 2.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HCM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HCM valuation
  • Financial statements: HUTCHMED (China) Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001648257) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HCM as of ; valuations recomputed .