NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. (NLCP) Fair Value 2026

NLCP · REIT - Specialty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. (NLCP) trades at $15.73, versus a $19.92 median fair value across its 7 active models — 26.6% above the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NLCP
Price
$15.73
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +26.6% upside with 11% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. (NLCP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. (NLCP) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $19.92, 26.6% above the current price of $15.73. Estimates range from $10.55 to $41.09. NLCP scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NLCP’s +26.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Specialty sector median is -28.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NLCP?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $19.92 +26.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $19.11 +21.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $10.55 -32.9%
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What Is NLCP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $10.55 to $41.09

CirclFi's 7 active models place NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. (NLCP) between $10.55 and $41.09 per share, a spread of 153% of the median. The median of that range — $19.92 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NLCP, against a current price of $15.73.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$10.55median $19.92$41.09
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$10.55
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$41.09
Model agreement5 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NLCP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NLCP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. (NLCP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $19.92. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $15.73 (implied upside of +26.6%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 7 bullish models. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +161.2% (fair value: $41.09), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -32.9% ($10.55). The spread between these extremes — +194.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NLCP?

7 of 13 models are currently active for NLCP. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NLCP is $19.92 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NLCP Rank in REIT - Specialty?

Among 20 REIT - Specialty stocks, NLCP ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places NLCP in the top tier.

As a REIT, NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. operates in a sector where capitalization rate (cap rate) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NLCP should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NLCP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NLCP a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +194.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NLCP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NLCP's 7 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Specialty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related REIT - Specialty stocks with 13-model coverage

BXDCBlackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.QOC 2.2SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 8.7FRMIFermi Inc.QOC 3.6LAMRLamar Advertising CompanyQOC 8.5PWPower REITQOC 6.1SBACSBA Communications CorporationQOC 8.5EPREPR PropertiesQOC 8.2LANDGladstone Land CorporationQOC 7.4IRMIron Mountain IncorporatedQOC 6.7

Read investment analysis: BXDC · SELF · FRMI · LAMR · PW · SBAC · EPR · LAND · IRM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NLCP?

7 companies across all industries closest to NLCP’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

MCKMcKesson CorporationQOC 8.7CHHChoice Hotels International, Inc.QOC 8.7RBCRBC Bearings IncorporatedQOC 8.7SSBSouthState Bank CorporationQOC 8.7TDWTidewater Inc.QOC 8.7AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MCK · CHH · RBC · SSB · TDW · AMZN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. (NLCP)'s intrinsic value at $19.92 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $10.55 to $41.09. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NLCP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.73, 5 of 7 active models suggest NLCP may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $19.92, 26.6% above the current price of $15.73 — a consensus view that NLCP is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Specialty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for NLCP?

NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NLCP?

CirclFi analyzes NLCP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NLCP?

Of the 7 models currently active on NLCP, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $41.09 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $10.55. CirclFi's published fair value for NLCP is the median of that range, $19.92, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 153% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NLCP a value trap in 2026?

NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. (NLCP) has a median fair value of $19.92 — 26.6% above the current price of $15.73 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NLCP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NLCP valuation
  • Financial statements: NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001854964) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NLCP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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