CME Group Inc. (CME) Fair Value 2026

CME · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, CME Group Inc. (CME) trades at $280.94, versus a $183.15 median fair value across its 6 active models — 34.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CME
Price
$280.94
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is CME Group Inc. (CME) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, CME Group Inc. (CME) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $183.15, 34.8% below the current price of $280.94. Estimates range from $82.96 to $365.96. CME scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CME’s -34.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy CME Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CME?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($280.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $134.12 -52.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $171.54 -38.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $82.96 -70.5%
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What Is CME's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $82.96 to $365.96

CirclFi's 6 active models place CME Group Inc. (CME) between $82.96 and $365.96 per share, a spread of 155% of the median. The median of that range — $183.15 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CME, against a current price of $280.94.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$82.96median $183.15$365.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$82.96
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$365.96
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CME. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CME, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is CME Group Inc. (CME) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on CME Group Inc. at its current price of $280.94. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $183.15 (-34.8% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $365.96 (+30.3%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $82.96 (-70.5%). This +100.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about CME Group Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CME?

6 of 13 models are currently active for CME. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CME is $183.15 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CME Rank in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges?

Among 17 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, CME ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places CME in the top tier.

Within the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges space, CME Group Inc. competes in an environment where return on tangible equity often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CME a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CME a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for CME Group Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, CME Group Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +100.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CME valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CME's 6 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CME Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Financial Data & Stock Exchanges Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks with 13-model coverage

FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc.QOC 9.0SPGIS&P Global Inc.QOC 8.8CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc.QOC 9.3MCOMoody's CorporationQOC 8.6BTOGBit Origin LtdQOC 2.5MORNMorningstar, Inc.QOC 8.6MSCIMSCI Inc.QOC 8.6TRUTransUnionQOC 7.8DTCXDatacentrex, Inc.QOC 5.0

Read investment analysis: FDS · SPGI · CBOE · MCO · BTOG · MORN · MSCI · TRU · DTCX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CME?

7 companies across all industries closest to CME’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

SPXCSPX Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.9SPSCSPS Commerce, Inc.QOC 8.9CPRTCopart, Inc.QOC 8.9GOLFAcushnet Holdings Corp.QOC 8.9FRTFederal Realty Investment TrustQOC 8.9LINLinde plcQOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SPXC · SPSC · CPRT · GOLF · FRT · LIN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About CME Group Inc.’s Valuation?

What is CME Group Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts CME Group Inc. (CME)'s intrinsic value at $183.15 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $82.96 to $365.96. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CME overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $280.94, 1 of 6 active models suggest CME may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $183.15, 34.8% below the current price of $280.94 — a consensus view that CME is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CME Group Inc.'s business model in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for CME?

CME Group Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CME?

CirclFi analyzes CME with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CME?

Of the 6 models currently active on CME, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $365.96 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $82.96. CirclFi's published fair value for CME is the median of that range, $183.15, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 155% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CME a value trap in 2026?

CME Group Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, CME Group Inc. (CME) has a median fair value of $183.15 — 34.8% below the current price of $280.94 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CME/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CME valuation
  • Financial statements: CME Group Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001156375) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CME as of ; valuations recomputed .

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