MSCI Inc. (MSCI) Fair Value 2026

MSCI · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, MSCI Inc. (MSCI) trades at $570.76, versus a $343.06 median fair value across its 10 active models — 39.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $359.05.

Key Facts

Ticker
MSCI
Price
$570.76
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is MSCI Inc. (MSCI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, MSCI Inc. (MSCI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $343.06, 39.9% below the current price of $570.76. Estimates range from $40.51 to $857.31. MSCI scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MSCI’s -39.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MSCI Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MSCI?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($570.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $359.05 -37.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $109.89 -80.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $327.06 -42.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $448.40 -21.4%
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What Is MSCI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $40.51 to $857.31

CirclFi's 10 active models place MSCI Inc. (MSCI) between $40.51 and $857.31 per share, a spread of 238% of the median. The median of that range — $343.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MSCI, against a current price of $570.76.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$40.51median $343.06$857.31
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$40.51
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$857.31
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MSCI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MSCI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MSCI Inc. (MSCI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MSCI Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $343.06. Trading at its current price of $570.76, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -39.9%. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $857.31 (+50.2%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $40.51 (-92.9%). This +143.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about MSCI Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MSCI?

10 of 13 models are currently active for MSCI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MSCI is $343.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $359.05 on its own, implying -37.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MSCI Rank in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges?

Among 17 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, MSCI ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places MSCI in the top tier.

MSCI Inc.'s positioning within the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges segment means that return on tangible equity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including loan portfolio growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MSCI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MSCI a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for MSCI Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, MSCI Inc. earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +143.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MSCI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MSCI's 10 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MSCI Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Financial Data & Stock Exchanges Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks with 13-model coverage

MORNMorningstar, Inc.QOC 8.6COINCoinbase Global, Inc.QOC 8.5MCOMoody's CorporationQOC 8.6NDAQNasdaq, Inc.QOC 8.5SPGIS&P Global Inc.QOC 8.8ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc.QOC 8.1TRUTransUnionQOC 7.8DTCXDatacentrex, Inc.QOC 5.0FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc.QOC 9.0CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: MORN · COIN · MCO · NDAQ · SPGI · ICE · TRU · DTCX · FDS · CBOE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MSCI?

7 companies across all industries closest to MSCI’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

CBTCabot CorporationQOC 8.6STGSunlands Technology GroupQOC 8.6ALGAlamo Group Inc.QOC 8.6HPKHighPeak Energy, Inc.QOC 8.6FRSHFreshworks Inc.QOC 8.6WBSWebster Financial CorpQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CBT · STG · ALG · HPK · FRSH · WBS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About MSCI Inc.’s Valuation?

What is MSCI Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MSCI Inc. (MSCI)'s intrinsic value at $343.06 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $40.51 to $857.31. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $359.05 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MSCI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $570.76, 2 of 10 active models suggest MSCI may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $343.06, 39.9% below the current price of $570.76 — a consensus view that MSCI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MSCI Inc.'s business model in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for MSCI?

MSCI Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MSCI?

CirclFi analyzes MSCI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MSCI?

Of the 10 models currently active on MSCI, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $857.31 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $40.51. CirclFi's published fair value for MSCI is the median of that range, $343.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 238% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MSCI a value trap in 2026?

MSCI Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, MSCI Inc. (MSCI) has a median fair value of $343.06 — 39.9% below the current price of $570.76 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MSCI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MSCI valuation
  • Financial statements: MSCI Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001408198) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MSCI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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