Bit Origin Limited (BTOG) Fair Value 2026

BTOG · Finance Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Bit Origin Limited (BTOG) trades at $0.95, approximately 379% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.20. QOC: 2.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BTOG
Price
$0.95
Quality Score
2.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +302.7% upside with 31% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.4/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Bit Origin Limited (BTOG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Bit Origin Limited (BTOG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $1.36, 43.2% above the current price of $0.95. Estimates range from $0.04 to $5.46. BTOG scores 2.4/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Bit Origin Limited Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$0.20 -79.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.18 +23.8%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$1.83 +92.5%
RCMH-DCF
Medium Conviction
$3.83 +302.7%

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What Is Bit Origin Limited (BTOG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Bit Origin Limited at $0.95. With an estimated intrinsic value of $1.71 and 8 of 11 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +79.4%. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $5.46 (+473.7%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $0.04 (-95.5%). This +569.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Bit Origin Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BTOG?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BTOG. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BTOG's intrinsic value at $0.20, implying -79.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BTOG Rank in Finance Services?

Among 114 Finance Services stocks, BTOG ranks #104 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.4 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Finance Services Stocks →

Bit Origin Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BTOG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BTOG a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Bit Origin Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Bit Origin Limited scores 2.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +569.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BTOG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BTOG's 11 active models, average confidence is 15%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bit Origin Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Finance Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Finance Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: QFIN · XYF · COIN · SII · JFIN

See all Finance Services stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Bit Origin Limited

What is Bit Origin Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Bit Origin Limited (BTOG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.20. The Quality of Company score is 2.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BTOG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.95, 8 of 11 active models suggest BTOG may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $1.36, 43.2% above the current price of $0.95 — a consensus view that BTOG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bit Origin Limited's business model in Finance Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.4 mean for BTOG?

Bit Origin Limited's QOC of 2.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BTOG?

CirclFi analyzes BTOG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BTOG a value trap in 2026?

Bit Origin Limited's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Bit Origin Limited (BTOG) has a median fair value of $1.36 — 43.2% above the current price of $0.95 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BTOG/ · Methodology

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