Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) Fair Value 2026

INVA · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) trades at $20.97, versus a $36.97 median fair value across its 11 active models — 76.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $40.05.

Key Facts

Ticker
INVA
Price
$20.97
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +148.9% upside with 76% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $36.97, 76.3% above the current price of $20.97. Estimates range from $5.27 to $108.28. INVA scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. INVA’s +76.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Innoviva, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give INVA?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.97)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.05 +91.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $52.19 +148.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $36.97 +76.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $29.07 +38.6%
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What Is INVA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $5.27 to $108.28

CirclFi's 11 active models place Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) between $5.27 and $108.28 per share, a spread of 279% of the median. The median of that range — $36.97 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for INVA, against a current price of $20.97.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · ML-RIV
$5.27median $36.97$108.28
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$5.27
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$108.28
Model agreement8 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for INVA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on INVA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Innoviva, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $36.97, suggesting a +76.3% median upside from the current price of $20.97. While 8 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $108.28 (+416.3%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $5.27 (-74.9%). This +491.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About INVA?

11 of 13 models are currently active for INVA. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for INVA is $36.97 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $40.05 on its own, implying +91.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does INVA Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, INVA ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places INVA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Innoviva, Inc.'s positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that R&D burn rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including gene therapy and cell therapy innovation — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is INVA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns INVA a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Innoviva, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Innoviva, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +491.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every INVA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across INVA's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Innoviva, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

BMRNBioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.QOC 8.6ADMAADMA Biologics, Inc.QOC 8.5NAGENiagen Bioscience, Inc.QOC 8.6REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.5MDXGMiMedx Group, Inc.QOC 8.7CORTCorcept Therapeutics IncorporatedQOC 8.5ABSIAbsci CorporationQOC 5.8GHRSGH Research PLCQOC 5.0APVOAptevo Therapeutics Inc.QOC 4.3EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: BMRN · ADMA · NAGE · REGN · MDXG · CORT · ABSI · GHRS · APVO · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to INVA?

7 companies across all industries closest to INVA’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

FIVEFive Below, Inc.QOC 8.6ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6GCTGigaCloud Technology Inc.QOC 8.6CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.QOC 8.6PGNYProgyny, Inc.QOC 8.6ESIElement Solutions IncQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FIVE · ODFL · GCT · CASY · PGNY · ESI · NVDA

Where Does INVA Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

INVA is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Innoviva, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Innoviva, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Innoviva, Inc. (INVA)'s intrinsic value at $36.97 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.27 to $108.28. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $40.05 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is INVA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.97, 8 of 11 active models suggest INVA may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $36.97, 76.3% above the current price of $20.97 — a consensus view that INVA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Innoviva, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for INVA?

Innoviva, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on INVA?

CirclFi analyzes INVA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on INVA?

Of the 11 models currently active on INVA, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $108.28 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $5.27. CirclFi's published fair value for INVA is the median of that range, $36.97, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 279% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is INVA a value trap in 2026?

Innoviva, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) has a median fair value of $36.97 — 76.3% above the current price of $20.97 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/INVA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this INVA valuation
  • Financial statements: Innoviva, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001080014) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for INVA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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