Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Fair Value 2026

NOG · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) trades at $26.08, versus a $48.67 median fair value across its 7 active models — 86.6% above the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NOG
Price
$26.08
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +177.5% upside with 4% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $48.67, 86.6% above the current price of $26.08. Estimates range from $33.88 to $72.36. NOG scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NOG’s +86.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NOG?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($26.08)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $72.36 +177.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $52.90 +102.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $33.88 +29.9%
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What Is NOG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $33.88 to $72.36

CirclFi's 7 active models place Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) between $33.88 and $72.36 per share, a spread of 79% of the median. The median of that range — $48.67 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NOG, against a current price of $26.08.

Low · EROICHigh · CUCE
$33.88median $48.67$72.36
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$33.88
Most bullish modelCUCE$72.36
Model agreement7 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NOG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.. Trading at $26.08 against an estimated intrinsic value of $48.67, 7 of 7 active models flag meaningful upside of +86.6% at the median. The most optimistic model, CUCE, places fair value at $72.36 (+177.5%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $33.88 (+29.9%). This +147.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NOG?

7 of 13 models are currently active for NOG. All 7 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NOG is $48.67 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NOG Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, NOG ranks #34 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s positioning within the Oil & Gas E&P segment means that debt-to-EBITDAX plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including commodity price environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NOG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NOG a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. scores 7.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +147.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NOG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NOG's 7 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

CNQCanadian Natural Resources LimitedQOC 8.0PROPPrairie Operating Co.QOC 7.8OVVOvintiv Inc.QOC 8.0MNRMach Natural Resources LPQOC 7.7FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.QOC 8.0RSRVThe Reserve Petroleum CompanyQOC 7.7EPSNEpsilon Energy Ltd.QOC 6.5MTRMesa Royalty TrustQOC 5.0EXEExpand Energy CorporationQOC 8.7TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CNQ · PROP · OVV · MNR · FANG · RSRV · EPSN · MTR · EXE · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NOG?

7 companies across all industries closest to NOG’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

PEBKPeoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc.QOC 7.8FMBMF & M Bank Corp.QOC 7.8AFLAflac IncorporatedQOC 7.8DUKDuke Energy CorporationQOC 7.8TMOThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.QOC 7.8PAXPatria Investments LimitedQOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PEBK · FMBM · AFL · DUK · TMO · PAX · NVDA

Where Does NOG Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

NOG is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)'s intrinsic value at $48.67 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $33.88 to $72.36. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NOG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $26.08, 7 of 7 active models suggest NOG may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $48.67, 86.6% above the current price of $26.08 — a consensus view that NOG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for NOG?

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NOG?

CirclFi analyzes NOG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NOG?

Of the 7 models currently active on NOG, CUCE is the most bullish at $72.36 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $33.88. CirclFi's published fair value for NOG is the median of that range, $48.67, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 79% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NOG a value trap in 2026?

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) has a median fair value of $48.67 — 86.6% above the current price of $26.08 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NOG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NOG valuation
  • Financial statements: Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001104485) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NOG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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