Ellington Credit Company (EARN) Fair Value 2026

EARN · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Ellington Credit Company (EARN) trades at $4.44, versus a $3.02 median fair value across its 6 active models — 32.1% below the current price. QOC: 5.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
EARN
Price
$4.44
Quality Score
5.8/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ellington Credit Company (EARN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Ellington Credit Company (EARN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $3.02, 32.1% below the current price of $4.44. Estimates range from $0.32 to $15.02. EARN scores 5.8/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. EARN’s -32.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ellington Credit Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EARN?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $1.22 -72.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.22 -27.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.82 -36.6%
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What Is EARN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $0.32 to $15.02

CirclFi's 6 active models place Ellington Credit Company (EARN) between $0.32 and $15.02 per share, a spread of 487% of the median. The median of that range — $3.02 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EARN, against a current price of $4.44.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.32median $3.02$15.02
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.32
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$15.02
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for EARN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EARN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ellington Credit Company (EARN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ellington Credit Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $3.02. Trading at $4.44, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -32.1%), as 4 of 6 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $15.02 (+238.2%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.32 (-92.7%). This +331.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ellington Credit Company's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About EARN?

6 of 13 models are currently active for EARN. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EARN is $3.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EARN Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, EARN ranks #85 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Ellington Credit Company operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is EARN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EARN a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Ellington Credit Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Ellington Credit Company earns a quality score of 5.8/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +331.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EARN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EARN's 6 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ellington Credit Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

CSWCCapital Southwest CorporationQOC 5.8MFICMidCap Financial Investment CorporationQOC 5.7BCICBCP Investment Corp.QOC 5.8CGBDCarlyle Secured Lending, Inc.QOC 5.6ARCCAres Capital CorporationQOC 5.9CIONCION Investment CorporationQOC 5.6MLCIMount Logan Capital Inc.QOC 4.8RGTRoyce Global Trust, Inc.QOC 2.2BMNMBimini Capital Management, Inc.QOC 7.3HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: CSWC · MFIC · BCIC · CGBD · ARCC · CION · MLCI · RGT · BMNM · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EARN?

7 companies across all industries closest to EARN’s Quality of Company score of 5.8/10.

NXHNeighborhood Intelligence, Inc.QOC 5.8FOCLEDAP TMS S.A.QOC 5.8BBBYBed Bath & Beyond, Inc.QOC 5.8HITIHigh Tide Inc.QOC 5.8QRHCQuest Resource Holding CorporationQOC 5.8DUOFangdd Network Group Ltd.QOC 5.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NXH · FOCL · BBBY · HITI · QRHC · DUO · NVDA

Where Does EARN Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

EARN is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ellington Credit Company’s Valuation?

What is Ellington Credit Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ellington Credit Company (EARN)'s intrinsic value at $3.02 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.32 to $15.02. The Quality of Company score is 5.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EARN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.44, 2 of 6 active models suggest EARN may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $3.02, 32.1% below the current price of $4.44 — a consensus view that EARN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ellington Credit Company's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.8 mean for EARN?

Ellington Credit Company's QOC of 5.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EARN?

CirclFi analyzes EARN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EARN?

Of the 6 models currently active on EARN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $15.02 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.32. CirclFi's published fair value for EARN is the median of that range, $3.02, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 487% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EARN a value trap in 2026?

Ellington Credit Company's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Ellington Credit Company (EARN) has a median fair value of $3.02 — 32.1% below the current price of $4.44 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EARN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EARN valuation
  • Financial statements: Ellington Credit Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001560672) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EARN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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