USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) Fair Value 2026

USAR · Other Industrial Metals & Mining ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (44/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) trades at $13.74, versus a $3.09 median fair value across its 5 active models — 77.5% below the current price. QOC: 5.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 44/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
USAR
Price
$13.74
Quality Score
5.7/10
Value Trap Risk
44/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 44 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $3.09, 77.5% below the current price of $13.74. Estimates range from $1.01 to $5.16. USAR scores 5.7/10 on fundamental quality and 44/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. USAR’s -77.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Other Industrial Metals & Mining sector median is -40.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy USA Rare Earth, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give USAR?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.09 -77.5%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $1.86 -86.5%
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What Is USAR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $1.01 to $5.16

CirclFi's 5 active models place USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) between $1.01 and $5.16 per share, a spread of 134% of the median. The median of that range — $3.09 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for USAR, against a current price of $13.74.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · FTNN
$1.01median $3.09$5.16
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1.01
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$5.16
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for USAR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on USAR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $3.09, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $13.74. With 5 out of 5 models flagging downside (-77.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $5.16 (-62.4%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $1.01 (-92.6%). This +30.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About USAR?

5 of 13 models are currently active for USAR. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for USAR is $3.09 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does USAR Rank in Other Industrial Metals & Mining?

Among 65 Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, USAR ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Other Industrial Metals & Mining Stocks →

As a industrial sector, USA Rare Earth, Inc. operates in a sector where organic revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating USAR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is USAR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns USAR a score of 44/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for USA Rare Earth, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.7/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +30.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every USAR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across USAR's 5 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy USA Rare Earth, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Other Industrial Metals & Mining Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks with 13-model coverage

WRNWestern Copper and Gold CorporationQOC 6.1NBNioCorp Developments Ltd.QOC 5.7CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc.QOC 6.1IPXIperionX LimitedQOC 5.6UAMYUnited States Antimony CorporationQOC 6.3ALMAlmonty Industries Inc.QOC 5.5CHNRChina Natural Resources, Inc.QOC 5.1LTUMLithium CorporationQOC 4.3NALGNorth America Lithium Corp.QOC 2.9MTRNMaterion CorporationQOC 8.9BHPBHP Group LimitedQOC 8.3

Read investment analysis: WRN · NB · CMP · IPX · UAMY · ALM · CHNR · LTUM · NALG · MTRN · BHP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to USAR?

7 companies across all industries closest to USAR’s Quality of Company score of 5.7/10.

YJYunji Inc.QOC 5.8HITIHigh Tide Inc.QOC 5.7SXTP60 Degrees Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 5.8UECUranium Energy Corp.QOC 5.7CENNCenntro Inc.QOC 5.8NNBRNN, Inc.QOC 5.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: YJ · HITI · SXTP · UEC · CENN · NNBR · NVDA

Where Does USAR Sit in CirclFi's Other Industrial Metals & Mining Rankings?

USAR is ranked against every other Other Industrial Metals & Mining stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About USA Rare Earth, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)'s intrinsic value at $3.09 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $1.01 to $5.16. The Quality of Company score is 5.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is USAR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.74, 0 of 5 active models suggest USAR may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $3.09, 77.5% below the current price of $13.74 — a consensus view that USAR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s business model in Other Industrial Metals & Mining.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.7 mean for USAR?

USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s QOC of 5.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on USAR?

CirclFi analyzes USAR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on USAR?

Of the 5 models currently active on USAR, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $5.16 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $1.01. CirclFi's published fair value for USAR is the median of that range, $3.09, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 134% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is USAR a value trap in 2026?

USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 44/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) has a median fair value of $3.09 — 77.5% below the current price of $13.74 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/USAR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this USAR valuation
  • Financial statements: USA Rare Earth, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001970622) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for USAR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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