Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) Fair Value 2026

ERO · Copper ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) trades at $39.82, versus a $24.23 median fair value across its 10 active models — 39.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $11.84.

Key Facts

Ticker
ERO
Price
$39.82
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $24.23, 39.2% below the current price of $39.82. Estimates range from $11.84 to $178.15. ERO scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ERO’s -39.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ero Copper Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ERO?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.84 -70.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.85 -57.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $24.11 -39.5%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $35.90 -9.9%
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What Is ERO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $11.84 to $178.15

CirclFi's 10 active models place Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) between $11.84 and $178.15 per share, a spread of 686% of the median. The median of that range — $24.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ERO, against a current price of $39.82.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$11.84median $24.23$178.15
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$11.84
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$178.15
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ERO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ERO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ero Copper Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $24.23. Trading at its current price of $39.82, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -39.2%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $178.15 (+347.4%), versus Bayesian DCF at $11.84 (-70.3%). This +417.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ERO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ERO. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ERO is $24.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $11.84 on its own, implying -70.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ERO Rank in Copper?

Among 8 Copper stocks, ERO ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places ERO in the top tier.

Ero Copper Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ERO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ERO a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Ero Copper Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ero Copper Corp. scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +417.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ERO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ERO's 10 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ero Copper Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Copper Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

7 related Copper stocks with 13-model coverage

SCCOSouthern Copper CorporationQOC 9.3FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.QOC 8.9TECKTeck Resources LimitedQOC 7.5TGBTrekor Metals LimitedQOC 6.5IEIvanhoe Electric Inc.QOC 6.0COPRIdaho Copper CorporationQOC 3.7HBMHudbay Minerals Inc.QOC 2.7

Read investment analysis: SCCO · FCX · TECK · TGB · IE · COPR · HBM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ERO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ERO’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

CECOCECO Environmental Corp.QOC 8.7NVTnVent Electric plcQOC 8.7ONBOld National BancorpQOC 8.7TUYATuya Inc.QOC 8.7HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.7CVCOCavco Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CECO · NVT · ONB · TUYA · HIG · CVCO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ero Copper Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Ero Copper Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ero Copper Corp. (ERO)'s intrinsic value at $24.23 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.84 to $178.15. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $11.84 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ERO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.82, 2 of 10 active models suggest ERO may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $24.23, 39.2% below the current price of $39.82 — a consensus view that ERO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ero Copper Corp.'s business model in Copper.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for ERO?

Ero Copper Corp.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ERO?

CirclFi analyzes ERO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ERO?

Of the 10 models currently active on ERO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $178.15 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $11.84. CirclFi's published fair value for ERO is the median of that range, $24.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 686% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ERO a value trap in 2026?

Ero Copper Corp.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) has a median fair value of $24.23 — 39.2% below the current price of $39.82 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ERO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ERO valuation
  • Financial statements: Ero Copper Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001853860) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ERO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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