What Is Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ero Copper Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $18.13. Trading at its current price of $24.65, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -26.5%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $84.10 (+241.1%), versus Dynamic NAV at $1.05 (-95.8%). This +336.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Markov DDM lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About ERO?
13 of 13 models are currently active for ERO. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ERO's intrinsic value at $14.09, implying -42.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ERO Rank in Metal Mining?
Among 38 Metal Mining stocks, ERO ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.
See all Most Undervalued Metal Mining Stocks →
Ero Copper Corp.'s positioning within the Metal Mining segment means that working capital efficiency plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automation and productivity gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is ERO a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ERO a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Ero Copper Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ero Copper Corp. scores 6.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +336.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ERO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ERO's 13 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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