Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) Fair Value 2026

XPRO · Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) trades at $15.59, approximately 566% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.34. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
XPRO
Price
$15.59
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +14.1% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$2.34 -85.0%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$6.58 -57.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$8.64 -44.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$17.78 +14.1%

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What Is Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Expro Group Holdings N.V.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $8.87, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $15.59. With 11 out of 13 models flagging downside (-43.1% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $17.78 (+14.1%), versus Bayesian DCF at $2.34 (-85.0%). This +99.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About XPRO?

13 of 13 models are currently active for XPRO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates XPRO's intrinsic value at $2.34, implying -85.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XPRO Rank in Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC?

Among 20 Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC stocks, XPRO ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places XPRO in the top tier.

Within the Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC space, Expro Group Holdings N.V. competes in an environment where breakeven oil price often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is XPRO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XPRO a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Expro Group Holdings N.V.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Expro Group Holdings N.V. is rated at 8.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +99.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XPRO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XPRO's 13 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Expro Group Holdings N.V. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Expro Group Holdings N.V.

What is Expro Group Holdings N.V.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Expro Group Holdings N.V. (XPRO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.34. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XPRO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.59, 1 of 13 active models suggest XPRO may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Expro Group Holdings N.V.'s business model in Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for XPRO?

Expro Group Holdings N.V.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XPRO?

CirclFi analyzes XPRO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is XPRO a value trap in 2026?

Expro Group Holdings N.V.'s Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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