Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) Fair Value 2026

DWSN · Oil & Gas Field Exploration Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) trades at $4.20, approximately 2252% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.18. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DWSN
Price
$4.20
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +61.6% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$0.18 -95.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$1.24 -70.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$2.99 -28.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$6.79 +61.6%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Dawson Geophysical Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $3.06. Trading at $4.20, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -27.1%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +71.7% (fair value: $7.21), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -95.7% ($0.18). The spread between these extremes — +167.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About DWSN?

12 of 13 models are currently active for DWSN. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates DWSN's intrinsic value at $0.18, implying -95.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DWSN Rank in Oil & Gas Field Exploration Services?

Among 2 Oil & Gas Field Exploration Services stocks, DWSN ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Oil & Gas Field Exploration Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For Dawson Geophysical Company, metrics like reserve life index provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DWSN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DWSN a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Dawson Geophysical Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Dawson Geophysical Company scores 6.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +167.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DWSN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DWSN's 12 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Dawson Geophysical Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Field Exploration Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Oil & Gas Field Exploration Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: PBA

Frequently Asked Questions About Dawson Geophysical Company

What is Dawson Geophysical Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.18. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DWSN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.20, 4 of 12 active models suggest DWSN may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Dawson Geophysical Company's business model in Oil & Gas Field Exploration Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for DWSN?

Dawson Geophysical Company's QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DWSN?

CirclFi analyzes DWSN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is DWSN a value trap in 2026?

Dawson Geophysical Company's Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on DWSN.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access