Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) Fair Value 2026

DWSN · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) trades at $3.34, versus a $1.01 median fair value across its 7 active models — 69.7% below the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DWSN
Price
$3.34
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $1.01, 69.7% below the current price of $3.34. Estimates range from $0.55 to $2.41. DWSN scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DWSN’s -69.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector median is -18.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Dawson Geophysical Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DWSN?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.34)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.01 -69.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $1.18 -64.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.23 -63.1%
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What Is DWSN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.55 to $2.41

CirclFi's 7 active models place Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) between $0.55 and $2.41 per share, a spread of 184% of the median. The median of that range — $1.01 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DWSN, against a current price of $3.34.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · FTNN
$0.55median $1.01$2.41
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$0.55
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$2.41
Model agreement0 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DWSN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DWSN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Dawson Geophysical Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $1.01. Trading at its current price of $3.34, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 7 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -69.7%. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at -27.8% (fair value: $2.41), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -83.5% ($0.55). The spread between these extremes — +55.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About DWSN?

7 of 13 models are currently active for DWSN. All 7 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for DWSN is $1.01 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DWSN Rank in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services?

Among 53 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, DWSN ranks #37 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For Dawson Geophysical Company, metrics like reserve life index provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DWSN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DWSN a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Dawson Geophysical Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Dawson Geophysical Company scores 6.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +55.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DWSN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DWSN's 7 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Dawson Geophysical Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks with 13-model coverage

FETForum Energy Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.6AESIAtlas Energy Solutions Inc.QOC 6.1GEOSGeospace Technologies CorporationQOC 6.7KLNGKoil Energy Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.0OISOil States International, Inc.QOC 6.8EFXTEnerflex Ltd.QOC 6.0GWTIGreenway Technologies, Inc.QOC 3.9XPROExpro LtdQOC 8.4SEISolaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 7.9WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: FET · AESI · GEOS · KLNG · OIS · EFXT · GWTI · XPRO · SEI · WHD · FTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DWSN?

7 companies across all industries closest to DWSN’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.QOC 6.4TRSGTungray Technologies Inc.QOC 6.4BMNRBitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.4IONSIonis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.4TRTTrio-Tech InternationalQOC 6.4SXCSunCoke Energy, Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AAP · TRSG · BMNR · IONS · TRT · SXC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Dawson Geophysical Company’s Valuation?

What is Dawson Geophysical Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN)'s intrinsic value at $1.01 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.55 to $2.41. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DWSN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.34, 0 of 7 active models suggest DWSN may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $1.01, 69.7% below the current price of $3.34 — a consensus view that DWSN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Dawson Geophysical Company's business model in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for DWSN?

Dawson Geophysical Company's QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DWSN?

CirclFi analyzes DWSN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DWSN?

Of the 7 models currently active on DWSN, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $2.41 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $0.55. CirclFi's published fair value for DWSN is the median of that range, $1.01, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 184% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DWSN a value trap in 2026?

Dawson Geophysical Company's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) has a median fair value of $1.01 — 69.7% below the current price of $3.34 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DWSN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DWSN valuation
  • Financial statements: Dawson Geophysical Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000799165) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DWSN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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