Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) Fair Value 2026

LPG · Oil & Gas Midstream ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) trades at $49.78, versus a $58.52 median fair value across its 12 active models — 17.6% above the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $125.84.

Key Facts

Ticker
LPG
Price
$49.78
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +152.8% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $58.52, 17.6% above the current price of $49.78. Estimates range from $13.76 to $145.47. LPG scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. LPG’s +17.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Midstream sector median is -12.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Dorian LPG Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LPG?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($49.78)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $125.84 +152.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $59.93 +20.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $67.82 +36.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $83.73 +68.2%
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What Is LPG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $13.76 to $145.47

CirclFi's 12 active models place Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) between $13.76 and $145.47 per share, a spread of 225% of the median. The median of that range — $58.52 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LPG, against a current price of $49.78.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · ML-RIV
$13.76median $58.52$145.47
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$13.76
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$145.47
Model agreement8 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LPG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LPG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Dorian LPG Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $58.52, suggesting a +17.6% median upside from the current price of $49.78. While 8 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $145.47 (+192.2%), versus Dynamic NAV at $13.76 (-72.4%). This +264.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LPG?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LPG. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LPG is $58.52 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $125.84 on its own, implying +152.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LPG Rank in Oil & Gas Midstream?

Among 55 Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, LPG ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places LPG in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas Midstream space, Dorian LPG Ltd. competes in an environment where capital efficiency ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is LPG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LPG a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Dorian LPG Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Dorian LPG Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.3/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +264.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LPG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LPG's 12 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Dorian LPG Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Midstream stocks with 13-model coverage

WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc.QOC 8.4OKEONEOK, Inc.QOC 8.3NVGSNavigator Holdings Ltd.QOC 8.4SOBOSouth Bow CorporationQOC 8.3TNKTeekay Tankers Ltd.QOC 8.4KMIKinder Morgan, Inc.QOC 8.3PXSPyxis Tankers Inc.QOC 7.9GELGenesis Energy, L.P.QOC 6.3FROFrontline plcQOC 2.7HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.2FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: WMB · OKE · NVGS · SOBO · TNK · KMI · PXS · GEL · FRO · HESM · FLNG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LPG?

7 companies across all industries closest to LPG’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

NVSTEnvista Holdings CorporationQOC 8.3IIINInsteel Industries Inc.QOC 8.3HONHoneywell International Inc.QOC 8.3MKTXMarketAxess Holdings Inc.QOC 8.3PSXPhillips 66QOC 8.3CHAChagee Holdings LimitedQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NVST · IIIN · HON · MKTX · PSX · CHA · NVDA

Where Does LPG Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas Midstream Rankings?

LPG is ranked against every other Oil & Gas Midstream stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas Midstream stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Dorian LPG Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Dorian LPG Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG)'s intrinsic value at $58.52 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $13.76 to $145.47. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $125.84 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LPG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $49.78, 8 of 12 active models suggest LPG may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $58.52, 17.6% above the current price of $49.78 — a consensus view that LPG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Dorian LPG Ltd.'s business model in Oil & Gas Midstream.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for LPG?

Dorian LPG Ltd.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LPG?

CirclFi analyzes LPG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LPG?

Of the 12 models currently active on LPG, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $145.47 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $13.76. CirclFi's published fair value for LPG is the median of that range, $58.52, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 225% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LPG a value trap in 2026?

Dorian LPG Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) has a median fair value of $58.52 — 17.6% above the current price of $49.78 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LPG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LPG valuation
  • Financial statements: Dorian LPG Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001596993) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LPG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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