NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP (NGL) Fair Value 2026

NGL · Natural Gas Transmission ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP (NGL) trades at $15.27, approximately 61% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $39.23. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NGL
Price
$15.27
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +157.0% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP (NGL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP (NGL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $21.00, 37.5% above the current price of $15.27. Estimates range from $4.61 to $39.23. NGL scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.27)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $39.23 +157.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $29.79 +95.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $21.11 +38.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $27.86 +82.5%

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What Is NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP (NGL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP. Trading at $15.27 against an estimated intrinsic value of $20.78, 9 of 12 active models flag meaningful upside of +36.1% on average. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $39.23 (+157.0%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $4.61 (-69.8%). This +226.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NGL?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NGL. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NGL's intrinsic value at $39.23, implying +157.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NGL Rank in Natural Gas Transmission?

Among 16 Natural Gas Transmission stocks, NGL ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Natural Gas Transmission space, NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP competes in an environment where finding and development costs (F&D) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NGL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NGL a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP's fundamental quality profile registers 6.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +226.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NGL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NGL's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Natural Gas Transmission Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Natural Gas Transmission stocks with 13-model coverage

WESWestern Midstream Partners, LPQOC 9.3TGSTransportadora de Gas del Sur SQOC 8.9TRGPTarga Resources, Inc.QOC 8.7DTMDT Midstream, Inc.QOC 8.5EPDEnterprise Products Partners L.QOC 8.4TRPTC Energy CorporationQOC 8.2ETEnergy Transfer LPQOC 7.9KMIKinder Morgan, Inc.QOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: WES · TGS · TRGP · DTM · EPD

Frequently Asked Questions About NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP

What is NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP (NGL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $39.23. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NGL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.27, 9 of 12 active models suggest NGL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $21.00, 37.5% above the current price of $15.27 — a consensus view that NGL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP's business model in Natural Gas Transmission.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for NGL?

NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP's QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NGL?

CirclFi analyzes NGL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NGL a value trap in 2026?

NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP (NGL) has a median fair value of $21.00 — 37.5% above the current price of $15.27 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NGL/ · Methodology

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