NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) Fair Value 2026

NGL · Oil & Gas Midstream ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) trades at $15.68, versus a $12.92 median fair value across its 6 active models — 17.6% below the current price. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $8.40.

Key Facts

Ticker
NGL
Price
$15.68
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $12.92, 17.6% below the current price of $15.68. Estimates range from $8.40 to $37.83. NGL scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. NGL’s -17.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Midstream sector median is -4.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NGL Energy Partners LP Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NGL?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.68)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.40 -46.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.83 -18.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.54 -45.5%
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What Is NGL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $8.40 to $37.83

CirclFi's 6 active models place NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) between $8.40 and $37.83 per share, a spread of 228% of the median. The median of that range — $12.92 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NGL, against a current price of $15.68.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$8.40median $12.92$37.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$8.40
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$37.83
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NGL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NGL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on NGL Energy Partners LP at its current price of $15.68. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $12.92 (-17.6% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $37.83 (+141.2%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $8.40 (-46.4%). This +187.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NGL Energy Partners LP's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NGL?

6 of 13 models are currently active for NGL. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NGL is $12.92 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $8.40 on its own, implying -46.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NGL Rank in Oil & Gas Midstream?

Among 55 Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, NGL ranks #40 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas Midstream space, NGL Energy Partners LP competes in an environment where finding and development costs (F&D) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NGL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NGL a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for NGL Energy Partners LP. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, NGL Energy Partners LP's fundamental quality profile registers 5.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +187.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NGL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NGL's 6 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NGL Energy Partners LP Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Midstream stocks with 13-model coverage

MMLPMartin Midstream Partners L.P.QOC 6.1SUNCSunocoCorp LLCQOC 5.7GELGenesis Energy, L.P.QOC 6.3TMDETMD Energy LimitedQOC 5.6TENTsakos Energy Navigation LimitedQOC 6.5NFENew Fortress Energy Inc.QOC 5.6GLNGGolar LNG LimitedQOC 2.7SOBOSouth Bow CorporationQOC 8.3BWLPBW LPG LimitedQOC 7.7HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.2FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: MMLP · SUNC · GEL · TMDE · TEN · NFE · GLNG · SOBO · BWLP · HESM · FLNG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NGL?

7 companies across all industries closest to NGL’s Quality of Company score of 5.9/10.

NFGCNew Found Gold Corp.QOC 5.9BOLTBolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.9CNFCNFinance Holdings LimitedQOC 5.9APSIAqua Power Systems Inc.QOC 5.9MBIMBIA Inc.QOC 5.9GPMTGranite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.QOC 5.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NFGC · BOLT · CNF · APSI · MBI · GPMT · NVDA

Where Does NGL Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas Midstream Rankings?

NGL is ranked against every other Oil & Gas Midstream stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas Midstream stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About NGL Energy Partners LP’s Valuation?

What is NGL Energy Partners LP's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)'s intrinsic value at $12.92 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $8.40 to $37.83. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $8.40 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NGL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.68, 2 of 6 active models suggest NGL may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $12.92, 17.6% below the current price of $15.68 — a consensus view that NGL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NGL Energy Partners LP's business model in Oil & Gas Midstream.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for NGL?

NGL Energy Partners LP's QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NGL?

CirclFi analyzes NGL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NGL?

Of the 6 models currently active on NGL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $37.83 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $8.40. CirclFi's published fair value for NGL is the median of that range, $12.92, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 228% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NGL a value trap in 2026?

NGL Energy Partners LP's Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) has a median fair value of $12.92 — 17.6% below the current price of $15.68 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NGL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NGL valuation
  • Financial statements: NGL Energy Partners LP 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001504461) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NGL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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