Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (BOLT) Fair Value 2026

BOLT · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (BOLT) trades at $3.81, versus a $15.05 median fair value across its 2 active models — 294.6% above the current price. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BOLT
Price
$3.81
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +350.6% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (BOLT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (BOLT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $15.05, 294.6% above the current price of $3.81. Estimates range from $12.92 to $17.19. BOLT scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 39/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BOLT’s +294.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BOLT?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $17.19 +350.6%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $12.92 +238.6%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (BOLT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $3.82. Based on our 13-model framework, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $15.05 — representing +294.6% implied upside — with 2 out of 2 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $17.19 (+350.6%), versus PWERM at $12.92 (+238.6%). This +112.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BOLT?

2 of 13 models are currently active for BOLT. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for BOLT is $15.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BOLT Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, BOLT ranks #161 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Within the Biotechnology space, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. competes in an environment where pipeline depth and stage distribution often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BOLT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BOLT a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. is rated at 5.9/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +112.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BOLT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BOLT's 2 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

RLAYRelay Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.9MIRMMirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 5.9OKUROnKure Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.9AURXNuo Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.9EYPTEyePoint, Inc.QOC 5.9TARSTarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 5.9CABACabaletta Bio, Inc.QOC 5.0PMCBPharmaCyte Biotech, Inc.QOC 4.4HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.2EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: RLAY · MIRM · OKUR · AURX · EYPT · TARS · CABA · PMCB · HRMY · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BOLT?

7 companies across all industries closest to BOLT’s Quality of Company score of 5.9/10.

BLGOBioLargo, Inc.QOC 5.9EPEmpire Petroleum CorporationQOC 5.9YJYunji Inc.QOC 5.9AMSAmerican Shared Hospital ServicesQOC 5.9SATLSatellogic Inc.QOC 5.9CGTLCreative Global Technology Holdings LimitedQOC 5.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BLGO · EP · YJ · AMS · SATL · CGTL · NVDA

Where Does BOLT Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

BOLT is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (BOLT)'s intrinsic value at $15.05 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $12.92 to $17.19. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BOLT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.81, 2 of 2 active models suggest BOLT may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $15.05, 294.6% above the current price of $3.81 — a consensus view that BOLT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for BOLT?

Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BOLT?

CirclFi analyzes BOLT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BOLT a value trap in 2026?

Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (BOLT) has a median fair value of $15.05 — 294.6% above the current price of $3.81 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BOLT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BOLT valuation
  • Financial statements: Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001641281) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BOLT as of ; valuations recomputed .