Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. (MCB) Fair Value 2026

MCB · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. (MCB) trades at $97.33, approximately 50% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $193.77. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MCB
Price
$97.33
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +99.1% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($97.33)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$193.77 +99.1%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$28.68 -70.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$124.37 +27.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$76.84 -21.1%

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What Is Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. (MCB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $133.30, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $97.33. While the average implied return is +37.0%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +299.0% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $319.69 (+228.5%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $28.68 (-70.5%). This +299.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MCB?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MCB. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MCB's intrinsic value at $193.77, implying +99.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MCB Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 170 State Commercial Banks stocks, MCB ranks #48 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places MCB in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

The State Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp., metrics like cost-to-income ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MCB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MCB a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +299.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MCB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MCB's 12 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.

What is Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. (MCB) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $193.77. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MCB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $97.33, 6 of 12 active models suggest MCB may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.'s business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for MCB?

Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MCB?

CirclFi analyzes MCB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MCB a value trap in 2026?

Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.'s Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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