Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) Fair Value 2026

NU · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) trades at $14.30, versus a $7.10 median fair value across its 3 active models — 50.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NU
Price
$14.30
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +19.3% upside with 23% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $7.10, 50.4% below the current price of $14.30. Estimates range from $5.55 to $17.06. NU scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NU’s -50.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nu Holdings Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NU?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.30)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $7.10 -50.4%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $17.06 +19.3%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $5.55 -61.2%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is NU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $5.55 to $17.06

CirclFi's 3 active models place Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) between $5.55 and $17.06 per share, a spread of 162% of the median. The median of that range — $7.10 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NU, against a current price of $14.30.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$5.55median $7.10$17.06
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$5.55
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$17.06
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Nu Holdings Ltd. at its current price of $14.30. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $7.10 (-50.4% vs price), with 2 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +19.3% (fair value: $17.06), while FTNN is the most conservative at -61.2% ($5.55). The spread between these extremes — +80.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NU?

3 of 13 models are currently active for NU. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NU is $7.10 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NU Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, NU ranks #198 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a financial institution, Nu Holdings Ltd. operates in a sector where non-performing loan ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NU should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NU a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Nu Holdings Ltd.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Nu Holdings Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +80.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NU's 3 active models, average confidence is 20%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nu Holdings Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

HNVRHanover Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.9WTBAWest Bancorporation, Inc.QOC 7.9FITBFifth Third BancorpQOC 7.9BBARBanco BBVA Argentina S.A.QOC 7.9EBMTEagle Bancorp Montana, Inc.QOC 7.9JUVFJuniata Valley Financial Corp.QOC 7.9WALWestern Alliance BancorporationQOC 7.2CHCOCity Holding CompanyQOC 8.7WABCWestamerica BancorporationQOC 8.3STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: HNVR · WTBA · FITB · BBAR · EBMT · JUVF · WAL · CHCO · WABC · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NU?

5 companies across all industries closest to NU’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

PFGCPerformance Food Group CompanyQOC 7.9CPACopa Holdings, S.A.QOC 7.9XERSXeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9LTHLife Time Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PFGC · CPA · XERS · LTH · NVDA

Where Does NU Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

NU is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nu Holdings Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Nu Holdings Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU)'s intrinsic value at $7.10 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.55 to $17.06. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.30, 1 of 3 active models suggest NU may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $7.10, 50.4% below the current price of $14.30 — a consensus view that NU is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nu Holdings Ltd.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for NU?

Nu Holdings Ltd.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NU?

CirclFi analyzes NU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NU?

Of the 3 models currently active on NU, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $17.06 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $5.55. CirclFi's published fair value for NU is the median of that range, $7.10, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 162% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NU a value trap in 2026?

Nu Holdings Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) has a median fair value of $7.10 — 50.4% below the current price of $14.30 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NU valuation
  • Financial statements: Nu Holdings Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001691493) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NU as of ; valuations recomputed .