Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Fair Value 2026

PFGC · Food Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) trades at $93.78, versus a $79.57 median fair value across its 10 active models — 15.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $158.67.

Key Facts

Ticker
PFGC
Price
$93.78
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +124.2% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $79.57, 15.2% below the current price of $93.78. Estimates range from $16.24 to $226.28. PFGC scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. PFGC’s -15.2% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Performance Food Group Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PFGC?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($93.78)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $158.67 +69.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $99.75 +6.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $210.28 +124.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.24 -82.7%
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What Is PFGC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $16.24 to $226.28

CirclFi's 10 active models place Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) between $16.24 and $226.28 per share, a spread of 264% of the median. The median of that range — $79.57 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PFGC, against a current price of $93.78.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$16.24median $79.57$226.28
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$16.24
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$226.28
Model agreement4 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PFGC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PFGC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Performance Food Group Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $79.57. Trading at $93.78, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -15.2%), as 6 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $226.28 (+141.3%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $16.24 (-82.7%). This +224.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Performance Food Group Company's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PFGC?

10 of 13 models are currently active for PFGC. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PFGC is $79.57 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $158.67 on its own, implying +69.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PFGC Rank in Food Distribution?

Among 12 Food Distribution stocks, PFGC ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

The Food Distribution sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer businesses. For Performance Food Group Company, metrics like gross margin expansion provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is PFGC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PFGC a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Performance Food Group Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Performance Food Group Company scores 7.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +224.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PFGC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PFGC's 10 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Performance Food Group Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Food Distribution Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Food Distribution stocks with 13-model coverage

SYYSysco CorporationQOC 8.7CHEFThe Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.QOC 8.5ANDEThe Andersons, Inc.QOC 8.2AVOMission Produce, Inc.QOC 8.0UNFIUnited Natural Foods, Inc.QOC 7.9DITAMCON Distributing CompanyQOC 7.6USFDUS Foods Holding Corp.QOC 7.4HFFGHF Foods Group Inc.QOC 7.1IVFHInnovative Food Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6MTEXMannatech, IncorporatedQOC 6.0TWGTop Wealth Group Holding LimitedQOC 2.8

Read investment analysis: SYY · CHEF · ANDE · AVO · UNFI · DIT · USFD · HFFG · IVFH · MTEX · TWG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PFGC?

7 companies across all industries closest to PFGC’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

ORealty Income CorporationQOC 7.9EEExcelerate Energy, Inc.QOC 7.9FITBFifth Third BancorpQOC 7.9AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.QOC 7.9EBMTEagle Bancorp Montana, Inc.QOC 7.9HCKTThe Hackett Group, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: O · EE · FITB · AJG · EBMT · HCKT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Performance Food Group Company’s Valuation?

What is Performance Food Group Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Performance Food Group Company (PFGC)'s intrinsic value at $79.57 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $16.24 to $226.28. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $158.67 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PFGC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $93.78, 4 of 10 active models suggest PFGC may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $79.57, 15.2% below the current price of $93.78 — a consensus view that PFGC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Performance Food Group Company's business model in Food Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for PFGC?

Performance Food Group Company's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PFGC?

CirclFi analyzes PFGC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PFGC?

Of the 10 models currently active on PFGC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $226.28 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $16.24. CirclFi's published fair value for PFGC is the median of that range, $79.57, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 264% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PFGC a value trap in 2026?

Performance Food Group Company's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) has a median fair value of $79.57 — 15.2% below the current price of $93.78 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PFGC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PFGC valuation
  • Financial statements: Performance Food Group Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001618673) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PFGC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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