Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Fair Value 2026

SOC · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) trades at $4.17. QOC: 3.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SOC
Price
$4.17
Quality Score
3.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +70.0% upside with 5% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 3.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $5.18, 24.3% above the current price of $4.17. Estimates range from $0.93 to $12.43. SOC scores 3.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sable Offshore Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.17)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $7.08 +70.0%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $5.18 +24.3%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
 $2.17 -47.8%

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What Is Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sable Offshore Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $5.76. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $4.17 (implied upside of +38.4%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 4 of 7 bullish models. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +198.4% (fair value: $12.43), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -77.6% ($0.93). The spread between these extremes — +276.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SOC?

7 of 13 models are currently active for SOC. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SOC Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, SOC ranks #65 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.6 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

Within the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas space, Sable Offshore Corp. competes in an environment where capital efficiency ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SOC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SOC a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Sable Offshore Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Sable Offshore Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 3.6/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +276.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SOC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SOC's 7 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sable Offshore Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 10.0MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationQOC 10.0HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.7PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 9.5FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.QOC 9.5EPSNEpsilon Energy Ltd.QOC 9.4DVNDevon Energy CorporationQOC 9.4SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Sable Offshore Corp.

What is Sable Offshore Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 3.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SOC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.17, 4 of 7 active models suggest SOC may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $5.18, 24.3% above the current price of $4.17 — a consensus view that SOC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sable Offshore Corp.'s business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.6 mean for SOC?

Sable Offshore Corp.'s QOC of 3.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SOC?

CirclFi analyzes SOC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SOC a value trap in 2026?

Sable Offshore Corp.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) has a median fair value of $5.18 — 24.3% above the current price of $4.17 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SOC/ · Methodology

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