Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Fair Value 2026

SOC · Oil & Gas Drilling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) trades at $4.49, versus a $5.36 median fair value across its 2 active models — 19.4% above the current price. QOC: 4.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SOC
Price
$4.49
Quality Score
4.0/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +35.9% upside with 32% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $5.36, 19.4% above the current price of $4.49. Estimates range from $4.62 to $6.10. SOC scores 4.0/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SOC’s +19.4% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sable Offshore Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SOC?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
$4.62 +2.8%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
$6.10 +35.9%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sable Offshore Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $5.36, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $4.49. With a median implied return of +19.4% across a split 1–0 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +33.1% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +35.9% (fair value: $6.10), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at +2.8% ($4.62). The spread between these extremes — +33.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SOC?

2 of 13 models are currently active for SOC. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SOC is $5.36 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SOC Rank in Oil & Gas Drilling?

Among 10 Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, SOC ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Within the Oil & Gas Drilling space, Sable Offshore Corp. competes in an environment where capital efficiency ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SOC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SOC a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Sable Offshore Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Sable Offshore Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 4.0/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +33.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SOC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SOC's 2 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sable Offshore Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Drilling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas Drilling stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: VAL · NE · BORR · PDS · NBR · PTEN · HP · RIG · SDRL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SOC?

7 companies across all industries closest to SOC’s Quality of Company score of 4.0/10.

Read investment analysis: MVIS · VBIO · CLOQ · ADIG · OSTX · APTN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Sable Offshore Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Sable Offshore Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)'s intrinsic value at $5.36 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.62 to $6.10. The Quality of Company score is 4.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SOC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.49, 2 of 2 active models suggest SOC may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $5.36, 19.4% above the current price of $4.49 — a consensus view that SOC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sable Offshore Corp.'s business model in Oil & Gas Drilling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.0 mean for SOC?

Sable Offshore Corp.'s QOC of 4.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SOC?

CirclFi analyzes SOC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SOC a value trap in 2026?

Sable Offshore Corp.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) has a median fair value of $5.36 — 19.4% above the current price of $4.49 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SOC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SOC valuation
  • Financial statements: Sable Offshore Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001831481) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SOC as of ; valuations recomputed .