Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) Fair Value 2026

ABG · Auto & Truck Dealerships ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) trades at $169.76, versus a $486.97 median fair value across its 10 active models — 186.9% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $970.52.

Key Facts

Ticker
ABG
Price
$169.76
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +471.7% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $486.97, 186.9% above the current price of $169.76. Estimates range from $154.76 to $970.52. ABG scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ABG’s +186.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto & Truck Dealerships sector median is -11.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ABG?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($169.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $970.52 +471.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $544.94 +221.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $266.60 +57.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $252.11 +48.5%
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What Is ABG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $154.76 to $970.52

CirclFi's 10 active models place Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) between $154.76 and $970.52 per share, a spread of 168% of the median. The median of that range — $486.97 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ABG, against a current price of $169.76.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$154.76median $486.97$970.52
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$154.76
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$970.52
Model agreement9 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ABG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ABG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $486.97. At a current market price of $169.76, 9 of 10 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +186.9%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +471.7% (fair value: $970.52), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -8.8% ($154.76). The spread between these extremes — +480.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ABG?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ABG. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ABG is $486.97 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $970.52 on its own, implying +471.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ABG Rank in Auto & Truck Dealerships?

Among 23 Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, ABG ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places ABG in the top tier.

Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Auto & Truck Dealerships segment means that warranty cost ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fleet renewal cycle — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ABG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ABG a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. scores 8.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +480.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ABG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ABG's 10 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto & Truck Dealerships Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks with 13-model coverage

ANAutoNation, Inc.QOC 8.1SAHSonic Automotive, Inc.QOC 8.0PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.1LADLithia Motors, Inc.QOC 7.8CVNACarvana Co.QOC 8.2GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc.QOC 7.8BGSIBoyd Group Services Inc.QOC 7.6UCARU Power LimitedQOC 6.1AZIAutozi Internet Technology (Global) Ltd.QOC 2.4OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: AN · SAH · PAG · LAD · CVNA · GPI · BGSI · UCAR · AZI · OPLN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ABG?

7 companies across all industries closest to ABG’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

OFLXOmega Flex, Inc.QOC 8.0PTRNPattern Group Inc.QOC 8.0FFBCFirst Financial Bancorp.QOC 8.0BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0ARESAres Management CorporationQOC 8.0DAVEDave Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OFLX · PTRN · FFBC · BFH · ARES · DAVE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG)'s intrinsic value at $486.97 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $154.76 to $970.52. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $970.52 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ABG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $169.76, 9 of 10 active models suggest ABG may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $486.97, 186.9% above the current price of $169.76 — a consensus view that ABG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.'s business model in Auto & Truck Dealerships.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for ABG?

Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ABG?

CirclFi analyzes ABG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ABG?

Of the 10 models currently active on ABG, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $970.52 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $154.76. CirclFi's published fair value for ABG is the median of that range, $486.97, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 168% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ABG a value trap in 2026?

Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) has a median fair value of $486.97 — 186.9% above the current price of $169.76 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ABG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ABG valuation
  • Financial statements: Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001144980) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ABG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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