Graham Holdings Company (GHC) Fair Value 2026

GHC · Conglomerates ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Graham Holdings Company (GHC) trades at $1142.92, versus a $688.34 median fair value across its 12 active models — 39.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1626.10.

Key Facts

Ticker
GHC
Price
$1142.92
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +42.3% upside with 71% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Graham Holdings Company (GHC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Graham Holdings Company (GHC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $688.34, 39.8% below the current price of $1142.92. Estimates range from $101.36 to $1626.10. GHC scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GHC’s -39.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Conglomerates sector median is -20.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Graham Holdings Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GHC?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1142.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1626.10 +42.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $101.36 -91.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $720.15 -37.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $1157.56 +1.3%
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What Is GHC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $101.36 to $1626.10

CirclFi's 12 active models place Graham Holdings Company (GHC) between $101.36 and $1626.10 per share, a spread of 222% of the median. The median of that range — $688.34 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GHC, against a current price of $1142.92.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$101.36median $688.34$1626.10
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$101.36
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$1626.10
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GHC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GHC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Graham Holdings Company (GHC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Graham Holdings Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $688.34. Trading at its current price of $1,142.92, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -39.8%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $1,626.10 (+42.3%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $101.36 (-91.1%). This +133.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Graham Holdings Company's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GHC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for GHC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GHC is $688.34 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1626.10 on its own, implying +42.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GHC Rank in Conglomerates?

Among 31 Conglomerates stocks, GHC ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Graham Holdings Company's positioning within the Conglomerates segment means that capacity utilization rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automation and productivity gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is GHC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GHC a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Graham Holdings Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Graham Holdings Company scores 7.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +133.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GHC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GHC's 12 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Graham Holdings Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Conglomerates Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Conglomerates stocks with 13-model coverage

SEBSeaboard CorporationQOC 8.1TTITETRA Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.7RCMTRCM Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.3MMM3M CompanyQOC 7.5HONHoneywell International Inc.QOC 8.3BOOMDMC Global Inc.QOC 7.2MATWMatthews International CorporationQOC 6.5CIRXCirTran CorporationQOC 5.2PAMPampa Energía S.A.QOC 2.7VMIValmont Industries, Inc.QOC 9.0OTTROtter Tail CorporationQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: SEB · TTI · RCMT · MMM · HON · BOOM · MATW · CIRX · PAM · VMI · OTTR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GHC?

7 companies across all industries closest to GHC’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.QOC 7.8GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.QOC 7.7BHRBBurke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.QOC 7.8SSLSasol LimitedQOC 7.7LCNBLCNB Corp.QOC 7.8AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AGO · GEO · BHRB · SSL · LCNB · AIG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Graham Holdings Company’s Valuation?

What is Graham Holdings Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Graham Holdings Company (GHC)'s intrinsic value at $688.34 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $101.36 to $1626.10. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1626.10 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GHC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1142.92, 3 of 12 active models suggest GHC may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $688.34, 39.8% below the current price of $1142.92 — a consensus view that GHC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Graham Holdings Company's business model in Conglomerates.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for GHC?

Graham Holdings Company's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GHC?

CirclFi analyzes GHC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GHC?

Of the 12 models currently active on GHC, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $1626.10 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $101.36. CirclFi's published fair value for GHC is the median of that range, $688.34, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 222% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GHC a value trap in 2026?

Graham Holdings Company's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Graham Holdings Company (GHC) has a median fair value of $688.34 — 39.8% below the current price of $1142.92 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GHC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GHC valuation
  • Financial statements: Graham Holdings Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000104889) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GHC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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