Sunlands Technology Group (STG) Fair Value 2026

STG · Services-Educational Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Sunlands Technology Group (STG) trades at $3.77. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
STG
Price
$3.77
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +1.9% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Markov DDM
High Conviction
$3.84 +1.9%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
$1.58 -58.2%

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What Is Sunlands Technology Group (STG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sunlands Technology Group's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $7.29. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $3.77 (implied upside of +93.4%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 3 of 5 bullish models. Notably, EROIC sees the most upside at +290.3% (fair value: $14.71), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -58.2% ($1.58). The spread between these extremes — +348.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About STG?

5 of 13 models are currently active for STG. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STG Rank in Services-Educational Services?

Among 39 Services-Educational Services stocks, STG ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places STG in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Educational Services Stocks →

Sunlands Technology Group operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is STG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STG a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Sunlands Technology Group. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sunlands Technology Group scores 9.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +348.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STG's 5 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sunlands Technology Group Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Educational Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Educational Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: LRN · PRDO · LOPE · IH · LGCY

See all Services-Educational Services stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Sunlands Technology Group

What is Sunlands Technology Group's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Sunlands Technology Group (STG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.77, 4 of 5 active models suggest STG may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sunlands Technology Group's business model in Services-Educational Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for STG?

Sunlands Technology Group's QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STG?

CirclFi analyzes STG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is STG a value trap in 2026?

Sunlands Technology Group's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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