Sunlands Technology Group (STG) Fair Value 2026

STG · Education & Training Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Sunlands Technology Group (STG) trades at $2.94, versus a $2.28 median fair value across its 2 active models — 22.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
STG
Price
$2.94
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Dynamic NAV suggests +42.0% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Sunlands Technology Group (STG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Sunlands Technology Group (STG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $2.28, 22.5% below the current price of $2.94. Estimates range from $0.38 to $4.18. STG scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. STG’s -22.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Education & Training Services sector median is -6.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sunlands Technology Group Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give STG?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
$4.18 +42.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
$0.38 -87.1%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Sunlands Technology Group (STG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sunlands Technology Group's intrinsic value is estimated at $2.28, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $2.94. With a median implied return of -22.5% across a split 1–1 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +129.1% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Dynamic NAV sees the most upside at +42.0% (fair value: $4.18), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -87.1% ($0.38). The spread between these extremes — +129.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About STG?

2 of 13 models are currently active for STG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for STG is $2.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STG Rank in Education & Training Services?

Among 45 Education & Training Services stocks, STG ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places STG in the top tier.

Sunlands Technology Group operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is STG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STG a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Sunlands Technology Group. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sunlands Technology Group scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +129.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STG's 2 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sunlands Technology Group Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Education & Training Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Education & Training Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: IH · AFYA · LAUR · APEI · UTI · PRDO · MH · JDZG · LXEH · LRN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to STG?

7 companies across all industries closest to STG’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

Read investment analysis: MSCI · HPK · CBT · WBS · ALG · EPRT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Sunlands Technology Group’s Valuation?

What is Sunlands Technology Group's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Sunlands Technology Group (STG)'s intrinsic value at $2.28 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.38 to $4.18. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.94, 1 of 2 active models suggest STG may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $2.28, 22.5% below the current price of $2.94 — a consensus view that STG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sunlands Technology Group's business model in Education & Training Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for STG?

Sunlands Technology Group's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STG?

CirclFi analyzes STG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is STG a value trap in 2026?

Sunlands Technology Group's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Sunlands Technology Group (STG) has a median fair value of $2.28 — 22.5% below the current price of $2.94 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/STG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this STG valuation
  • Financial statements: Sunlands Technology Group 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001723935) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for STG as of ; valuations recomputed .