Itron, Inc. (ITRI) Fair Value 2026

ITRI · Scientific & Technical Instruments ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Itron, Inc. (ITRI) trades at $88.39, versus a $82.00 median fair value across its 10 active models — 7.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $94.74.

Key Facts

Ticker
ITRI
Price
$88.39
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +7.2% upside with 69% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Itron, Inc. (ITRI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Itron, Inc. (ITRI) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $82.00, within 7.2% of the current price of $88.39. Estimates range from $38.18 to $232.80. ITRI scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ITRI’s -7.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Scientific & Technical Instruments sector median is -46.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Itron, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ITRI?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($88.39)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $94.74 +7.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $84.56 -4.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.18 -56.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $59.86 -32.3%
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What Is ITRI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $38.18 to $232.80

CirclFi's 10 active models place Itron, Inc. (ITRI) between $38.18 and $232.80 per share, a spread of 237% of the median. The median of that range — $82.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ITRI, against a current price of $88.39.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$38.18median $82.00$232.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$38.18
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$232.80
Model agreement4 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ITRI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ITRI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Itron, Inc. (ITRI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Itron, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $82.00, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $88.39. While the median implied return is -7.2%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +220.2% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $232.80 (+163.4%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $38.18 (-56.8%). This +220.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Itron, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ITRI?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ITRI. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ITRI is $82.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $94.74 on its own, implying +7.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ITRI Rank in Scientific & Technical Instruments?

Among 41 Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks, ITRI ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places ITRI in the top tier.

Itron, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ITRI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ITRI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Itron, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Itron, Inc. scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +220.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ITRI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ITRI's 10 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Itron, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Scientific & Technical Instruments Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks with 13-model coverage

AATCAutoscope Technologies CorporationQOC 8.5CGNXCognex CorporationQOC 8.3SOTKSono-Tek CorporationQOC 8.6NOVTNovanta Inc.QOC 8.2MLABMesa Laboratories, Inc.QOC 8.6VNTVontier CorporationQOC 8.1LGLThe LGL Group, Inc.QOC 7.1ASTCAstrotech CorporationQOC 5.6ITRNIturan Location and Control Ltd.QOC 3.0ACFNAcorn Energy, Inc.QOC 9.4BMIBadger Meter, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: AATC · CGNX · SOTK · NOVT · MLAB · VNT · LGL · ASTC · ITRN · ACFN · BMI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ITRI?

7 companies across all industries closest to ITRI’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

NICNicolet Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.5GSKGSK plcQOC 8.5PHMPulteGroup, Inc.QOC 8.5VASOVaso CorporationQOC 8.5PFISPeoples Financial Services Corp.QOC 8.5WDLFDecentral Life, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NIC · GSK · PHM · VASO · PFIS · WDLF · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Itron, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Itron, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Itron, Inc. (ITRI)'s intrinsic value at $82.00 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $38.18 to $232.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $94.74 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ITRI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $88.39, 4 of 10 active models suggest ITRI may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $82.00, within 7.2% of the current price of $88.39 — a consensus view that ITRI is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Itron, Inc.'s business model in Scientific & Technical Instruments.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for ITRI?

Itron, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ITRI?

CirclFi analyzes ITRI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ITRI?

Of the 10 models currently active on ITRI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $232.80 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $38.18. CirclFi's published fair value for ITRI is the median of that range, $82.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 237% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ITRI a value trap in 2026?

Itron, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Itron, Inc. (ITRI) has a median fair value of $82.00 — within 7.2% of the current price of $88.39 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ITRI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ITRI valuation
  • Financial statements: Itron, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000780571) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ITRI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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