VTEX (VTEX) Fair Value 2026

VTEX · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, VTEX (VTEX) trades at $3.60, versus a $2.90 median fair value across its 11 active models — 19.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.64.

Key Facts

Ticker
VTEX
Price
$3.60
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +1.2% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is VTEX (VTEX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, VTEX (VTEX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $2.90, 19.6% below the current price of $3.60. Estimates range from $0.93 to $8.32. VTEX scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. VTEX’s -19.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy VTEX Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VTEX?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.64 +1.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $2.90 -19.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $3.31 -7.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.93 -74.1%
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What Is VTEX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $0.93 to $8.32

CirclFi's 11 active models place VTEX (VTEX) between $0.93 and $8.32 per share, a spread of 255% of the median. The median of that range — $2.90 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VTEX, against a current price of $3.60.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.93median $2.90$8.32
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.93
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$8.32
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VTEX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VTEX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is VTEX (VTEX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on VTEX at its current price of $3.60. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $2.90 (-19.6% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $8.32 (+131.0%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.93 (-74.1%). This +205.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about VTEX's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About VTEX?

11 of 13 models are currently active for VTEX. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VTEX is $2.90 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.64 on its own, implying +1.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VTEX Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, VTEX ranks #58 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places VTEX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Within the Software - Application space, VTEX competes in an environment where rule of 40 score often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is VTEX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VTEX a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for VTEX. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, VTEX is rated at 8.3/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +205.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VTEX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VTEX's 11 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy VTEX Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

LIFLife360, Inc.QOC 8.3DFINDonnelley Financial Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.3MITKMitek Systems, Inc.QOC 8.3LIFXLife360, Inc.QOC 8.3GWREGuidewire Software, Inc.QOC 8.4OOMAOoma, Inc.QOC 8.3EXFYExpensify, Inc.QOC 6.9FTFTFuture FinTech Group Inc.QOC 5.2KNRXKnorex Ltd.QOC 2.8ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: LIF · DFIN · MITK · LIFX · GWRE · OOMA · EXFY · FTFT · KNRX · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VTEX?

6 companies across all industries closest to VTEX’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

BDXBecton, Dickinson and CompanyQOC 8.3NKENIKE, Inc.QOC 8.3TDCTeradata CorporationQOC 8.3SPGSimon Property Group, Inc.QOC 8.3CWBCCommunity West BancsharesQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BDX · NKE · TDC · SPG · CWBC · NVDA

Where Does VTEX Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

VTEX is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About VTEX’s Valuation?

What is VTEX's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts VTEX (VTEX)'s intrinsic value at $2.90 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.93 to $8.32. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.64 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VTEX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.60, 3 of 11 active models suggest VTEX may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $2.90, 19.6% below the current price of $3.60 — a consensus view that VTEX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits VTEX's business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for VTEX?

VTEX's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VTEX?

CirclFi analyzes VTEX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VTEX?

Of the 11 models currently active on VTEX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $8.32 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.93. CirclFi's published fair value for VTEX is the median of that range, $2.90, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 255% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VTEX a value trap in 2026?

VTEX's Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, VTEX (VTEX) has a median fair value of $2.90 — 19.6% below the current price of $3.60 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VTEX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VTEX valuation
  • Financial statements: VTEX 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001793663) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VTEX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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